MAC Championship Predictions

MAC Championship Game
7:00PM Friday December 3, 2010 on ESPN2
Ford Field, Detroit Michigan

vs.

Northern Illinois (10-2) vs Miami (Ohio) (8-4)

It might have been too much to expect but in hindsight the Northern Illinois Huskies had a chance to run the table this year. Instead they had to settle for a perfect season in the MAC, including a West Division championship and probably more on Friday night. These Huskies are no BCS crashers but they are among the better non BCS teams out there. With there size and experience they do not get pushed around by anybody. Whoever plays them in a bowl better be ready for them.

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Speaking of ready for them I don’t think the Redhawks are quite there yet. This team has some good history but this is more of a “we’re back” season as opposed to a championship one. It especially doesn’t help that they are likely to be starting a freshman at QB in Austin Boucher. He was solid in beating Temple but that was at home not in Ford Field for the championship. He will need the help of the rest of the team, especially the defense if they want to pull off the upset and enter the bowls as MAC champs.

This may sound redundant but the interesting thing in terms of handicapping this game is the spread. UNI has only been this big a favourite 2 times all season, covering both against North Dakota (FBS) and demolishing Eastern Michigan last week. On the other side, the only games that Miami has been such a big underdog is against FBS opponents Florida, Cincinnati and Missouri. They were 1-2 ATS in those contests. As good as the Huskies are can they beat them up so thoroughly in a championship game setting. It might be too much to expect.

Game Prediction: Northern Illinois is definitely the class of the MAC this year. They have more than held their own facing BCS teams, beating the same Minnesota team that beat Iowa last Saturday. Look for them to be able to run against the Redhawks, using their large veteran offensive line to control the line of scrimmage. The should be able to grab the early lead and be mostly unchallenged the rest of the way.

Score Prediction:
Northern Illinois – 38
Miami – 24

The spread is -17 for the Northern Illinois Huskies…a little too rich for my blood.

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Team records:

• Miami (Ohio): 8-4 SU, 6-5 ATS
• Northern Illinois: 10-2 SU, 9-1-1 ATS

Miami (Ohio) RedHawks most recently:

• When playing in December are 2-3
• When playing on turf are 7-3
• After outgaining opponent are 5-5
• When playing within the conference are 7-3

Northern Illinois Huskies most recently:

• When playing in December are 1-3
• When playing on turf are 9-1
• After outgaining opponent are 8-2
• When playing within the conference are 8-2

A few betting trends to consider:

• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami (Ohio)’s last 5 games
• Miami (Ohio) is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
• Miami (Ohio) is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Northern Illinois
• Northern Illinois is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
• Northern Illinois is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami (Ohio)
• Northern Illinois is 9-0-1 ATS in its last 10 games
• The total has gone OVER in 7 of Northern Illinois’s last 10 games