Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Louisiana Tech 2008 Record: (8-5, 5-3)
Louisiana Tech 2008 Bowl: Independence Bowl vs. Northern Illinois (W 17-10)
Louisiana Tech Coach: Derek Dooley (13-12 at Louisiana Tech, 13-12 overall)
Louisiana Tech Offensive Coordinator: Frank Scelfo
Louisiana Tech Defensive Coordinator: Tommy Spangler
Louisiana Tech Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Daniel Porter, RB, 1,164 yards
• Passing: Ross Jenkins, QB, 1,155 yards
• Receiving: Phillip Livas, WR, 607 yards
• Tackles: Antonio Baker, S, 115
• Sacks: D’Anthony Smith, DT, 5.0
• Interceptions: Antonio Baker, S, 3; Deon Young, S, 3

Notable Louisiana Tech Returning Players: DE Jared Barron, DE Matt Broha, G Kris Cavitt, OT Cudahy Harmon, G Ben Harris, DT Mason Hitt, DE Kwame Jordan, OT Rob McGill, TE Dennis Morris, C Lon Roberts, LB Brian White

Louisiana Tech Key Losses: WR Philip Beck, CB Weldon Brown, LB Quin Harris, TE Anthony Harrison, CB Stevon Howze, LB Brannon Jackson, P Chris Keagle, K Brad Oestriecher

2008 was a huge success for the Bulldogs and their eight wins were the most in the last two decades! Head Coach Derek Dooley’s second season was marked by a strong defense and a strong sense of competitiveness. The Bulldogs upset SEC power Mississippi State in the season opener, the first SEC team to visit the Dawgs in a century. Tech also won the Independence Bowl, their first bowl win in 30 years, to close out a fantastic season. With 16 starters back from last year’s team, expectations are high once more in Ruston.

The offense was largely ground-based last season, averaging almost 190 yards per game, thanks to the presence of 1 st team All-WAC tailback Daniel Porter. Porter, now a senior, rushed for 1,164 yards and 9 touchdowns and also contributed nearly 200 yards through the air. That production should continue as the entire offensive line is back from last year and every single starter is an upperclassman. With a year’s experience of success underneath their belts, expect this line to be one of the conference’s best and Porter should find plenty of running room. Meanwhile, the passing game has a lot of space for improvement as junior Ross Jenkins will start the entire year after taking over part way through in 2008. Jenkins threw for 1,155 yards and 7 touchdowns against only 3 picks in eight starts last fall and I expect his numbers to improve this year. That assumes, of course, that one of his receivers step up behind junior Phillip Livas, who was solid last year with 43 catches, 607 yards and 4 touchdowns to lead the team. If depth can be found (keep an eye on sophomore R.P. Stuart, who scored two rushing TDs last year in trick sets) then Louisiana Tech might be able to field a balanced offense. Either way, I think that this is a solid group with a lot of experience and should exceed last year’s 24.5 points per game average.

The defense was the strength of the team last year, allowing less than 24 points per game, including four games in which they held the opposition to two touchdowns or less. Even better, eight starters return, including the entire defensive line. That line was the pillar upon which the Bulldogs’ exceptional rush defense (104 yard per game average) was built last fall. Led by senior DT D’Anthony Smith, who was a 1 st team All-WAC selection and finished third on the team with 65 tackles, 5 of which were sacks, the Bulldogs might field the conference’s toughest D-Line. However, there is some concern behind them. At linebacker, junior Dominique Faust was the only starter to play the entire season. However, senior Brian White began the year as a starter but missed the final 8 games due to injury and should be a solid force opposite Faust now that he has returned to health. While I expect the Bulldogs to have another good group at ‘backer, I still don’t think that you can call them any better than average in the WAC. The secondary is also a mixed bag, as senior safeties Deon Young and Antonio Baker (1 st team All-WAC in 2008 ) are back after combining for 174 tackles and 6 interceptions last fall. However, the loss of their starting cornerbacks, who combined for 136 tackles and six picks in 2008, is a major concern. While I expect that steady safety play will benefit the Bulldogs, I also think they’ll have a tough time replacing the production they got at corner last fall. Overall, this defense should be very solid up front, meaning that teams will attack the secondary much more often. The new starters at corner need to step up quickly for the Bulldogs to become a true competitor for the conference title.

The schedule is also fairly tough. The non-conference features trips to Auburn, LSU, and Navy and the trip to Baton Rouge comes right in the middle of conference play. In fact, the games surrounding it are a home game against Boise State and a road trip to Fresno State! The Bulldogs also have to play at Nevada and Utah State, giving them a tough conference road schedule. Despite the tougher slate, this Bulldog team should once more be a bowl-caliber group. However, the tougher non-conference schedule makes me believe that if they get to eight wins once again then Dooley could be one of the country’s hottest coaching commodities. Louisiana Tech will probably not make a run at the WAC title but they should once again be rewarded with a bowl trip.

Louisiana Tech Big Games: Sept. 30th vs. Hawai’i, Oct. 9th @ Nevada, Nov. 6th vs. Boise State, Nov. 21st @ Fresno State, Dec. 5th vs. San Jose State

Louisiana Tech’s Strength:

The offense was relatively effective in 2008 and they should be better in 2009. Quarterback Ross Jenkins is not the most efficient signal caller in the conference, but he is an upperclassman now and at least he tends to minimize his mistakes and keep the interceptions to a minimum. And when the passing game was going nowhere, the Bulldogs relied on running back Daniel Porter. The 5-9 senior rushed for 1,164 yards and nine touchdowns in 2008 and he might have some more work to do this time around. That is because receiver Philip Beck and tight end Anthony Harrison are gone. Phillip Livas will once again be the team’s go-to-guy, but Louisiana Tech needs to find another receiving threat or two if the offense is going to be better than it was last season.

Louisiana Tech’s Weakness:

While the front four will dominate, the rest of the defense has some holes to fill. The group in the middle lost Quin Harris and Brannon Jackson and corners Weldon Brown and Stevon Howze are also gone. That leaves a lot of holes in the back seven that was not great to begin with. Linebacker Brian White is suddenly the leader of the unit and safeties Antonio Baker and Deon Young have to step up. However, that does not address the needs at corner and at the rest of the linebacker corps. Defensive coordinator Tommy Spangler better find some new players to fill those holes or the secondary will struggle no matter how good the front four plays.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Bulldogs:

The defense should be just as good as it was last season as long as they can continue to create turnovers. Now it depends on how well the offense, particularly the passing game, improves. With the entire starting line back, there is certainly reason to be optimistic. If Jenkins can emerge as a consistent passer and the team does not rank last in the conference in passing offense, Louisiana Tech has an outside shot of winning the conference, especially since Boise State has to come to Joe Aillet Stadium.

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