Louisiana Monroe Warhawks 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Louisiana Monroe 2008 Record: (4-8, 3-4)
Louisiana Monroe 2008 Bowl: none
Louisiana Monroe Coach: Charlie Weatherbie (25-45 at Louisiana Monroe, 70-109 overall)
Louisiana Monroe Offensive Coordinator: Vance Vice and Jonas Weatherbie
Louisiana Monroe Defensive Coordinator: Troy Reffett
Louisiana Monroe Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Frank Goodin, RB, 783 yards
• Passing: Trey Revell, QB, 129 yards
• Receiving: Darrell McNeal, WR, 558 yards
• Tackles: Cardia Jackson, LB, 127
• Sacks: Aaron Morgan, DE, 6.0
• Interceptions: Greg James, S, 3

Notable Louisiana Monroe Returning Players: CB Nate Brown, OT Ryan Dercher, WR Anthony McCall, WR J.J. McCoy, G Justin Roberts, LB Theo Smith, CB Otis Stamps, G Doug Stroud, LB Josh Thomas, C Brett Thompson, S Josh Thompson, DT Aaron Williams

Louisiana Monroe Key Losses: DT DeMarcus Carmouche, QB Kinsmon Lancaster, S Chance Payne, OT Larry Shappley, TE Zeek Zacharie

The Warhawks struggled through an inconsistent season in 2008 to finish 3-4 in conference play, 4-8 overall. ULM played five games that were decided by four points or less and despite their poor record they somehow gave Troy their only conference loss. The positive was that the Warhawks posted a 3-2 home record and bring back seventeen starters this season.

The offense, which struggled at times last year in producing only 23.6 points per game, brings back eight starters and should be much improved. Their offensive line, the basis for any solid unit, brings back four starters and is one of the conference’s best. That offensive line should allow junior Frank Goodin to improve upon his 700+ rushing yards and 5 touchdowns from a year ago as he could be the focus of the offense after sharing the load last year. At receiver, Senior Darrell McNeal will be the top target if he takes care of the off-field issues which caused him to miss spring practice. Sophomore Anthony McCall (400+ yards, 6 TDs as a true freshman in 2008 ) is a star in the making and could break out in a big way, especially if McNeal is not part of the team. The big question for UL-Monroe is at quarterback, where a pair of juniors will battle out for the starting position. Overall, this offense should boast a strong running game and if they can find some consistent quarterback play then they should beat last year’s scoring totals. Still, this is no better than an average offense in the Sun Belt.

The 2008 defense for the Warhawks was their worst defense since 2004, allowing over 31 points per game. The primary culprit in their ineptitude was a rush defense which allowed 213 yards per game on the ground. However, things are looking much better this year as five of the front six in their 3-3-5 defense return, including an all-senior group on the line led by defensive end Aaron Morgan, who notched 6 sacks last fall. Senior linebacker Cardia Jackson had 127 tackles last year and will anchor a very mobile group. I fully expect this senior-laden group to be much improved against the run. The secondary is also chock full of veterans, returning all four starters, three of which are seniors. Safety Josh Thompson had over 100 tackles last year and will form one of the Sun Belt’s best safety pairings with 2008 interception leader Greg James. I expect a vastly improved defense as the Warhawks could start as many as nine seniors!

UL-Monroe has a very tough schedule. They have only 5 home games (they were 1-6 away from home last year) and their road games come in clusters. Three of their first four are on the road and they run into a stretch late in the year where four out of five are away from Monroe. Their opening stretch includes games at Texas, Arizona State and Florida Atlantic and the second stretch kicks off with road games at Kentucky, Troy and North Texas! Needless to say, this is a difficult schedule. Overall, I think that the Warhawks are a veteran team which is much improved from last season but they face an uphill battle with their difficult schedule and I will be surprised to see them finish with more than 5 wins on the season.

Louisiana Monroe Big Games: Sept. 26th @ FAU, Oct. 13th vs. Arkansas State, Oct. 31st @ Troy, Nov. 7th @ North Texas, Nov. 21st @ Louisiana

Louisiana Monroe’s Strength:

The one thing the Warhawks did better than anything else was run the ball. That was in part due to quarterback Kinsmon Lancaster. On top of rushing for 614 yards during his senior campaign, Lancaster threw for over 2,000 yards and connected on 18 touchdown passes. Trey Revell will not scramble as effectively as Lancaster, but he is a capable passer who should take the team out of last place in passing offense in the conference. Yet, the ground game will still thrive under running back Frank Goodin. Goodin has been the starting running back since his freshman campaign and he should be in for a great junior season…especially since the offensive line returns four starters. Those linemen will also give Revell time to find his receivers. Tight end Zeek Zacharie is gone, but there are some quality receivers on the team led by Darrell McNeal.

Louisiana Monroe’s Weakness:

The defense returns nine starters, but they ranked second to last in the conference in rush and pass defense. The biggest problem was the lack of a pass rush. End Aaron Morgan and linebacker Cardia Jackson accounted for ten of the team’s 13 sacks on the season. Those two are back, but the pressure needs to come from more than just Morgan and Jackson. Jameson Jordan or Troy Evans have to get some pressure from the other end of the line or the opposition can double Morgan and keep an eye on Jackson blitzing from the linebacker spot. Jackson is more than just a pass rusher however and he tallied an impressive 127 tackles last year and is the unquestioned leader of the defense. The secondary returns everybody, but they allowed the opposition to throw for 232 yards per game in 2008. If the front three cannot get pressure on the quarterback, the secondary will once again have some major problems.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Warhawks:

The big question is how much better will the defense get with their year of experience? Jackson is a great player and most of the starting lineup will consist of seniors, but this is practically the same group that gave up over 31 points per game last season. The offense may have to rely on Goodin a little more than they did in 2008, but that is not a bad thing at all. Goodin is a difference maker who can dominate, but it will be important for the passing game to improve under their new signal caller.

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