Louisiana Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Louisiana Lafayette 2008 Record: (6-6, 5-2)
Louisiana Lafayette 2008 Bowl: none
Louisiana Lafayette Coach: Rickey Bustle (32-50 at Louisiana, 32-50 overall)
Louisiana Lafayette Offensive Coordinator: Ron Hudson
Louisiana Lafayette Defensive Coordinator: Kevin Fouquier
Louisiana Lafayette Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Brad McGuire, QB, 143 yards
• Passing: Brad McGuire, QB, 233 yards
• Receiving: Ladarius Green, TE, 268 yards
• Tackles: Daylon McCoy, LB, 69; Antwyn Zanders, LB, 69
• Sacks: Daylon McCoy, LB, 4.0
• Interceptions: Daylon McCoy, LB, 2

Notable Louisiana Lafayette Returning Players: CB Orkeys Auriene, CB Dwight Bentley, S Gerren Blount, G Ian Burks, G Brad Bustle, DE Hall Davis, OT Jonathan Decoster, C Chris Fisher, LB Grant Fleming, WR Louis Lee, OT Kyle Pirtle, DE Terrell Richardson, DT Jermaine Rogers, WR Vernon Wolfe

Louisiana Lafayette Key Losses: WR Jason Chery, DT Lanier Coleman, QB Michael Desormeaux, K Drew Edmiston, RB Tyrell Fenroy, TE Erik Jones, S Derik Keyes

2008 marked the Ragin’ Cajuns’ 3 rd six win season in the last four years, a big achievement for a team that has never been to a bowl game. In a way, Louisiana has run into some bad luck considering that they’re three for three in being passed over in bowl games despite being eligible. Despite some serious losses, a lot of experienced players return and the Ragin’ Cajuns will be looking to break their bowl hex.

Offensively, Louisiana brings back seven starters. On the surface that sounds great, right? Well, considering that their losses include a two year starter at quarterback, two tailbacks who each rushed for over 1,000 yards (combining for over 2,400 yards and 24 rushing touchdowns) and their leading receiver, who led the team in catches, yards and touchdowns by a wide margin, there is only one word to sum it all up: Ouch. The good news is that Louisiana returns their entire starting offensive line, which paved the way for two 1,000 yard rushers last fall and all five are upperclassmen. The big concern is replacing most of the team’s yardage from 2008. Their leading returning receiver is tight end Ladarius Green, who only had 22 catches in 2008, though 5 were for touchdowns. They have virtually no experience at quarterback. Their tailbacks are very wet behind the ears. In short, despite the new cast of characters at the skill positions, Louisiana should have the potential to be a solid offense thanks to the presence of one of the conference’s best offensive lines. However, I can’t imagine them coming anywhere close to their impressive 33 points per game average from a year ago.

Defensively, there are far fewer questions. The Ragin’ Cajuns bring back nine starters to a unit which allowed 33.8 points per game, second worst in the conference. Up front, three of the top guns return and Louisiana could have a solid pair of pass rushers in senior Hall Davis and sophomore Nate Douglas, who combined for 7.5 sacks last year. The line should be improved this fall after allowing over 210 yards per game on the ground and having trouble getting to the quarterback in 2008. The linebackers should be solid as they return last year’s co-leading tacklers in senior Antwyne Zanders and junior Daylon McCoy. I expect each to improve upon last year’s production and help their defensive line shut down the run. In the secondary, senior safety Gerren Blount will be counted on to lead a group which was decent yardage-wise but didn’t force hardly any turnovers last fall. They will need to improve or teams won’t be afraid to air it out. I expect the Ragin’ Cajuns to improve on defense for the 2 nd consecutive year but this is no better than an average Sun Belt defense.

The schedule is quite tough, especially the non-conference run. They host Kansas State before traveling to LSU and Nebraska, making a 1-3 start a strong probability. The conference schedule includes a stretch of four games on the road in five weeks, which will be very difficult considering Louisiana’s 4-9 record away from home during the past two seasons. The good news is that they have six home games after posting a 4-1 home mark last year and host four out of my projected top five conference teams in Lafayette. Overall, I think that the Ragin’ Cajuns will have difficulty making up for the enormous amount of lost offensive production this year. I expect their scoring to drop precipitously and while they should have an improved defense, it won’t be nearly improved enough to make up for the corresponding lack of offense. A tough non-conference schedule seals Louisiana’s fate and I don’t expect this team to finish year bowl eligible, much less compete for a conference title.

Louisiana Lafayette Big Games: Oct. 10th vs. North Texas, Oct. 17th @ WKU, Nov. 14th @ MTSU, Nov. 21st vs. UL-Monroe, Nov. 28th vs. Troy

Louisiana Lafayette’s Strength:

But can the defense improve enough for this group to win seven games? The front four rarely got into the backfield, but now ends Hall Davis and Terrell Richardson and tackle Jermaine Rogers are upperclassmen. That experience needs to result in more sacks and tackles-for-loss or the defense, even with more experience, will be just as ineffective as it was last year. The rush defense gave up over 200 yards per game and linebackers Daylon McCoy, Grant Fleming and Antwyn Zanders have to help out. McCoy is a great talent who can do a little bit of everything and he, along with Zanders, need to emerge as the leaders of this team. By the numbers, the secondary was not too bad in 2008 and three starters are returning. However, the reason for the decent statistics is because the opposition simply did not need to pass the ball most of the time…they could run their way to victory.

Louisiana Lafayette’s Weakness:

Quarterback Michael Desormeaux passed for 1,876 yards and rushed for 1,035 yards during his senior campaign. Jason Chery was the team’s best receiver, who could also carry the ball and return kickoffs and Tyrell Fenroy was the most well known player on the team. Fenroy, a 5-9 running back, tallied 1,374 yards and 19 touchdowns on the ground. Now those three are gone and they will not be easily replaced…ever. Brad McGuire is the top quarterback, but he missed the spring due to an injury. Without Chery, the new quarterback will have to find some new targets. Richie Falgout had a good spring and Louis Lee and tight end Ladarius Green are experienced pass catchers. Undrea Sails is the likely replacement for Fenroy. The senior had a good spring, but he will have a tough time replacing the Sun Belt Player of the Year.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Ragin’ Cajuns:

However, the team does return all five starting linemen. While Sails might not be Fenroy and McGuire is no Desormeaux and Falgout will struggle to put up numbers similar to Chery’s, the experience of the offensive line will make everybody’s job so much easier. The offense will not be as dominant as it was in 2008, but the defense should be good enough to take Louisiana back to bowl eligibility.

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