Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl | Predictions & Pick

Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl

vs.

Toledo (8-4) vs Florida International (6-6)
Sunday, December 26, 2010 at 8:30 pm on ESPN
Ford Field – Detroit, Michigan

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Toledo has had a nice quiet season.  It wasn’t a great year for the MAC but they went 7-1 in league play losing only to Northern Illinois on the road.  Like all MAC teams they measure themselves against their brethren in the Big Ten.  This year they were able to score an upset over Purdue on the road flipping the spread by winning by 11 points as an 11 point underdog.  It also looks like Toledo has found its QB of the future in Terrence Owens.  Filling in for the injured Austin Dantin down the strecth Owens was great, completing 60% of his passes and finding the end zone 12 times against two interceptions.  He and sophomore WR Eric Page will challenge FIU on Boxing Day and look for them to become one of the better pitch and catch duos in the MAC next season.

Florida International may only be 6-6 but this was a very good season for them.  They beat Troy last month so even though they tied the Trojans with a 6-2 record in the Sun Belt they are the champions, earning themselves this bowl bid.  This isn’t a great team but led by well regarded coach Mario Cristobal they were able to recover from an oh-fer in the non conference portion of their season to make some hay in the Sun Belt.  The key to their chances against Toledo lie with dynamic receiver/returner T.Y. Hilton.  Any time he has the ball he has a chance to go the distance and on the fast turn of Ford Field the Rockets will have to be sure to contain him.  If they do it is going to be hard for the Golden Panthers to grab the victory in a surprising bowl appearance.

As a scheduling quirk these teams have met each of the last two seasons, splitting the two games, with the road team winning each one.  This is FIU’s first crack at a bowl so they should be very excited even though they will be very far from home.  It is likely to be a more pro Toledo crowd and that might be the difference in what should be a pretty tight game.

Game Prediction: Toledo is probably the more talented team and is on the rise in the MAC.  It would be a big step for FIU to win, but perhaps this is a little early in the program’s maturation process.  This should be a closely contested battle with whoever has it last having the chance to take it.

Score Prediction:
Toledo – 31
Florida International  - 27

The odds makers have the Toledo Rockets as a -1.5 point favorite with an over/under of 56.

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Toledo Rockets Betting Trends:

• Toledo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toledo’s last 7 games
• Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
• Rockets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Rockets are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games following a S.U. win.

Florida International Golden Panthers Betting Trends:

• Florida International is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
• Golden Panthers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
• Golden Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.