Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
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Boston College (7-5) vs. Nevada (12-1)
It wasn’t a great season for BC but they find themselves in a bowl again and it is a nice ending for LB Mark Herzlich who came all the way back from cancer to compete this season. On any other team he would be the best linebacker by far but BC has Luke Kuechly too. He might be the best LB in America and he finds the ball wherever it may go. The strength of this Eagles team is defense, in fact they are number one against the rush in the nation – only giving up 72 yards per game. They are going to need a super strong effort against Nevada as their running attack is as potent as any in the nation. BC’s big problem is that they just can’t score points. They are 18th in the nation in scoring defense but score only 18ppg on offense. That is not a great combination. If they had any sort of offense beyond handing the ball to Montel Harris they would have been a real threat in the ACC. Here is something interesting – the Eagles had a 5 game winning streak and a 5 game losing streak this season. I can’t imagine any team has ever done that before.
Need more help making your picks winners? Check out our top handicappers.
I have no proof that I didn’t jump on the Nevada bandwagon when they beat Boise State so I hope you will believe me when I say that I have loved this Wolfpack team all season long. I live on the East Coast and I can remember staying up late to watch them pound Cal in week three, enjoying the unheralded excellence of QB Colin Kaepernick. His long strides and powerful arm are the reason this team was only 6 points away from perfection (a road loss to Hawaii). Their Pistol offense generates the second most yards in the nation and they score more than 42 points per game. Still the reason it all came together this year is because the defense finally started pulling its weight. Nevada gives up only 22 points per game on D and has a stingy run defense (17th). They are not great against the pass but they do rush the QB well and their passing figures are distorted by how much they play with the lead. They may not quite be elite but this is a complete and dangerous team.
Don’t let the records fool you BC is capable of hanging with Nevada even in a down year. For that to happen they need to be sharp on defense and get a game from their QB that is memorable. Even that might not be enough against the prolific Wolfpack. BC didn’t play any teams this season with as fearsome a rushing attack so it will be interesting to see if the month to prepare is enough.
Game Prediction: Nevada will eventually overrun the Eagles. The game will be tight early on but eventually Kaepernick and RB Vau Taua will squirt free for some big gainers. Once Nevada gets the lead the pendulum will really swing in their direction as BC is not built to play from behind…unless the Eagles have some new wrinkles on offense we haven’t seen.
Score Prediction:
Nevada – 31
BC – 17
The spread -7.5 for Nevada. That extra half point takes away some of the value but if you are having a good bowl season you can easily get down on this one.
Team records:
- Boston College: 7-5 SU, 5-6 ATS
- Nevada: 12-1 SU, 7-5 ATS
Boston College Eagles most recently:
- When playing on grass are 3-7
- After outgaining opponent are 6-4
- When playing outside the conference are 6-4
- After playing Syracuse are 6-3
Nevada Wolfpack most recently:
- When playing on grass are 6-4
- After outgaining opponent are 8-2
- When playing outside the conference are 6-4
- After playing Louisiana Tech are 3-6
A few betting trends to consider:
- Boston College is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston College’s last 5 games
- Nevada is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
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