Iowa Hawkeyes 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Iowa 2008 Record: (9-4, 5-3)
Iowa 2008 Bowl: Outback Bowl vs. South Carolina (W 31-10)
Iowa Coach: Kirk Ferentz (70-53 at Iowa, 82-74 overall)
Iowa Offensive Coordinator: Ken O’Keefe
Iowa Defensive Coordinator: Norm Parker
Iowa Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Jewel Hampton, RB, 463 yards
• Passing: Ricky Stanzi, QB, 1,956 yards
• Receiving: Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, WR, 639 yards
• Tackles: Pat Angerer, LB, 107
• Sacks: Broderick Binns, DE, 2.0; Adrian Clayborn, DE, 2.0; A.J. Edds, LB, 2.0; Karl Klug, DT, 2.0
• Interceptions: Pat Angerer, LB, 5; Tyler Sash, S, 5

Notable Iowa Returning Players: DE Christian Ballard, OT Bryan Bulaga, OT Kyle Calloway, S Brett Greenwood, LB Jeremiha Hunter, CB Amari Spievey, G Julian Vandervelde

Iowa Key Losses: WR Andy Brodell, C Rob Bruggeman, CB Bradley Fletcher, RB Shonn Greene, DT Mitch King, DT Matt Kroul, TE Brandon Myers, G Seth Olsen,

Iowa surprised a ton of observers last fall as the Hawkeyes rebounded from a bowl-less 2007 season to finish with a strong 9-4 record, including an Outback Bowl victory over South Carolina. Even more impressive was that the Hawkeyes’ four losses were by a combined total of twelve points and their spoiling of Penn State’s national title hopes was the highlight of the season. Kirk Ferentz’s team returns many talented starters but there are some very important holes to fill. Can the Hawkeyes produce another strong season?

Offensively, there is one major question: Tailback. 2008 Doak Walker Award winning tailback Shonn Greene left early for the NFL after rushing for 1,850 yards and 20 touchdowns and expected starter Jewel Hampton has had some knee problems and won’t be fully healthy all year. That leaves a gaping hole at tailback that is currently filled by former walk-on junior Paki O’Meara. Needless to say, there will be a significant drop off this fall in the running game.

However, there is a lot of good news everywhere else for Iowa. Junior quarterback Ricky Stanzi had a solid debut season last fall, throwing for nearly 2,000 yards and 14 touchdowns. I expect Stanzi to take another step forward in his development and should be one of the conference’s better quarterbacks. His wide receivers are a solid group as returning junior Darrell Johnson-Koulianos led the team last fall with 44 catches. However, he’s spent much of camp in the doghouse and sophomore Marvin McNutt has impressed. Also watch out for senior tight end Tony Moeaki, who has the potential to be one of the Big Ten’s best if he can stay healthy for the whole year.

Finally, Iowa always seems to have a great line and 2009 should be no different. Junior tackle Brian Bulaga is one of the best in the country and should anchor a very solid group. While the dearth of experience at tailback is a major concern, running behind one of the league’s absolute best lines definitely gives me a lot more confidence that the Hawkeyes will at least produce a serviceable rushing attack. Overall, I don’t know if the Hawkeyes will score 30 points per game like they did last fall but I expect a solid passing game to pick up some of the lost production from Greene. Expect Iowa’s offense to be good enough to give them a chance to win every week and if Hampton can come back healthy at some point then this will be a dangerous offense.

Defensively, Iowa is really impressive. They return eight starters from a unit which allowed opponents to only score 13 points per game in 2008! Up front, the Hawkeyes have to replace the Big Ten’s best pair of defensive tackles as the extremely disruptive tandem of Mitch King and Matt Kroul graduated. Junior Karl Klug appears to be a very solid replacement in one of their spots but there is no doubt that Iowa will take a step back up the middle. However, there are two very solid defensive ends on hand and I think that the Hawkeyes might generate a better pass rush this fall.

The linebackers are the strength of the defense. Seniors AJ Edds and Pat Angerer team up with junior Jeremiha Hunter to form one of the Big Ten’s top groups and they should be stalwarts against both the pass (Angerer had 5 picks in 2008 ) and run (All three combined for 246 tackles last fall). The secondary is also excellent, led by junior cornerback Amari Spievey, who is one of the conference’s top cover corners. Iowa’s safety tandem of sophomore Tyler Sash, a 3rd team Freshman All-American in 2008, and junior Brett Greenwood is also one of the league’s best. Overall, if the Hawkeyes can adequately replace King and Kroul then this should be one the Big Ten’s best defenses in 2009.

Outside of the tailback situation, Iowa’s biggest concern this fall is their schedule. The Hawkeyes play two BCS teams during the non-conference portion of the season as they host Arizona and travel to rival Iowa State. If that wasn’t enough of a challenge, Iowa has the league’s most difficult road schedule as they have to travel to Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin! The only good news is that they avoid Illinois in the schedule rotation but this is a brutal run.

Iowa is a very deep and talented team on both sides of the football and their lines are two of the Big Ten’s strongest. However, there is a big question mark at tailback after losing America’s best running back. To make matters worse, their very capable replacement is expected to struggle with a nagging knee injury all fall, leaving their depth very thin. If you can’t run the football in the Big Ten, you’re going to struggle. To make matters worse, Iowa plays an incredibly tough road schedule and should consider themselves fortunate to earn a 2-2 mark. Simply put, this is a very talented team with an experienced quarterback and a great defense but I’m afraid that the league’s toughest road schedule and an extremely questionable running game will prevent them from becoming a true competitor for the conference title. Because of these concerns, I just can’t see this team winning more than eight games this fall.

Iowa Big Games: Sept. 12th @ Iowa State, Sept. 19th vs. Arizona, Sept. 26th @ PSU, Oct. 10th vs. Michigan, Oct. 17th @ Wisconsin, Oct. 24th @ MSU, Nov. 7th vs. Northwestern, Nov. 14th @ OSU, Nov. 21st vs. Minnesota

Iowa’s Strength:

With the return of Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Stanzi has his favorite target. Johnson-Koulianos caught a team high 44 passes for 639 yards as a sophomore. The Hawkeyes will need to find a few new targets to compliment Johnson-Koulianos, but with him leading the way, Iowa’s passing game should be fine. The defensive back seven should be very strong as well. All three linebackers return led by Pat Angerer. With A.J. Edds and Jeremiha Hunter by his side, the linebacker corps should be one of the best in the conference. The return of three of the team’s four starters in the secondary will make things even better. The team ranked 12 th in the nation in total defense and that could happen once again if Tyler Sash, Brett Greenwood and Amari Spievey can shut down a conference that should have a handful of quality receivers.

Iowa’s Weakness:

However, the defense has lost two of its most important players. Tackles Mitch King and Matt Kroul were the heart and soul of the defense and they will be sorely missed. The Hawkeyes gave up less than one hundred yards per game on the ground and that was almost entirely due to King and Kroul. How much will the defense suffer now that those two are gone? Karl Klug and Mike Daniels have potential, but there is no way those two will be able to replace the production of King and Kroul. The other big loss is running back Shonn Greene. Greene tallied an incredible 1,850 yards on the ground and now the torch will be passed to Jewel Hampton. Hampton did a decent job when given the opportunity last season, but there definitely should be a drop off in production on the ground this year and that will put a ton of pressure on Stanzi to get the passing attack moving consistently.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Hawkeyes:

Iowa does lose a couple quality linemen in guard Seth Olsen and center Rob Bruggeman. However, tackles Bryan Bulaga and Kyle Calloway, along with guard Julian Vandervelde are a good group to build around. The unit gave up quite a few sacks last year, but they also paved the way for Greene to have a superb year. If the line can hold up again, the offense should be in decent shape.

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