Indiana Hoosiers 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Indiana 2008 Record: (3-9, 1-7)
Indiana 2008 Bowl: none
Indiana Coach: Bill Lynch (10-15 at Indiana, 91-82-3 overall)
Indiana Offensive Coordinator: Matt Canada
Indiana Defensive Coordinator: Brian George and Joe Palcic
Indiana Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Kellen Lewis, QB, 500 yards
• Passing: Kellen Lewis, QB, 1,131 yards
• Receiving: Ray Fisher, WR, 373 yards
• Tackles: Matt Mayberry, LB, 89
• Sacks: Jammie Kirlew, DE, 10.5
• Interceptions: Austin Thomas, S, 2

Notable Indiana Returning Players: CB Chris Adkins, G Cody Faulkner, CB Ray Fisher, DT Deonte Mack, DE Greg Middleton, LB Will Patterson, S Nick Polk, OT Rodger Saffold, C Pete Saxon, OT Mike Start, WR Terrance Turner, TE Troy Wagner

Indiana Key Losses: DT Greg Brown, LB Geno Johnson, S Joe Kleinsmith, WR Andrew Means, CB Christopher Phillips, K Austin Starr, RB Marcus Thigpen

2008 was a very disappointing season in Bloomington after the success of 2007. Indiana followed up their first bowl season in 15 years with a 3-9 clunker and only won one conference game. To make matters worse, former star quarterback Kellen Lewis ran into troubles on and off the field and won’t be with the team this season. Furthermore, the Hoosiers’ season ending loss to archrival Purdue was a 62-10 beat down, capping off a bad year. Head coach Bill Lynch has rebounded well from such adversity and has a solid recruiting class lined up going into the fall. A lot of people believe he’s on the hot seat but I honestly don’t expect Indiana to make a coaching change even if the Hoosiers have another tough year. Can Lynch make his team competitive this fall?

Offensively, The Hoosiers regressed terribly in 2008, scoring 11 points per game less than in 2007. To make matters worse, Indiana loses every single statistical leader at the skill positions. Losing Lewis is especially troublesome as he was the team’s sole difference-maker on offense. Junior Ben Chappell threw for 1,000 yards and 4 touchdowns last fall and will be the unquestioned starter this season but he’s not surrounded by very much talent. His top returning receiver will be sophomore Damario Belcher after senior Ray Fischer and his 42 catches and 5 touchdowns were moved to defense in the spring. Chappell doesn’t have the escapability that Lewis did in the pocket and also doesn’t have a single receiver that I believe would start at any other Big Ten school. I expect a very poor passing attack this fall.

The tailback situation is also pretty thin. Senior Bryan Payton is the top returning rusher but he only ran for 340 yards and 2 scores last season. Freshman Darius Willis could be the top option. The line is probably the brightest spot on the entire offense as four starters return. Expect a decent running game but there isn’t a difference-maker in the backfield. Overall, Indiana was not a dangerous offense at all last season and they don’t have any playmakers this fall. I hate to say it but this is going to be the Big Ten’s worst offense.

The defensive outlook is a little bit more positive. Indiana has one of the conference’s best defensive end tandems in seniors Jamie Kirlew and Greg Middleton, both of whom have earned 1st team All-Big Ten honors in their careers. Expect a strong pass rush off the edges this fall and both are future NFL draft picks. The defensive tackles are also solid and I think that the Hoosiers should be in line for improvement against the run this season. The linebackers also look fairly solid. Senior Matt Mayberry led the team in tackles last year with 89 and tacked on 5 sacks, making him one of the league’s most productive players. He will be flanked by senior Will Patterson, who was 4th on the team in tackles last fall, and junior Tyler Replogle, who made 20 tackles in the season finale! I expect a solid run defense in Bloomington.

Unfortunately, I can’t say the same about their pass defense. Lynch was so concerned about defending against the aerial assault that he moved his top returning reciever to cornerback in the spring after the Hoosiers were by far the league’s worst pass defense. Senior safeties Nick Polk and Austin Thomas made a lot of tackles last year and a lot of injuries slowed down the rest of the secondary but I expect teams to try to throw the ball early and often this fall, especially with the strength of the front seven. Overall, Indiana allowed a touchdown more per game than any other team in the Big Ten last fall and I don’t expect such ineptitude in 2009 thanks to their solid front. In the end, the Hoosiers were by far the conference’s worst defense last season and despite their improvement I expect them to finish once more in the bottom of the league standings.

The schedule is a toss-up. Indiana only has six home games but their only non-conference BCS opponent is ACC weakling Virginia. In Big Ten play, the Hoosiers avoid Michigan State and Northwestern in the conference’s schedule rotation but they have to travel to Penn State, Iowa and Michigan, three of the league’s toughest venues for opposing teams. This should be a daunting slate for Indiana.

Overall, I hate to pick a team to finish 0-8 in the league standings but there simply isn’t a single opponent on the schedule that I think the Hoosiers are capable of beating. The only other team in the league that appears to be near their talent level is archrival Purdue, who beat Indiana 62-10 last fall and has won 10 of the last 12 games in the series! Indiana’s offense doesn’t have anyone who will remotely scare opposing defensive coordinators without Lewis and they could have a lot of trouble scoring points this fall. While I think Indiana has a strong defensive front, their secondary is a concern and even if the Hoosiers allowed a touchdown less per game this year, they’d still be one of the league’s worst defenses. I’m afraid Lynch is going to need time to bring in more talent and if Indiana matches last year’s three win total then I will be surprised.

Indiana Big Games: Sept. 19th @ Akron, Sept. 26th @ Michigan, Oct. 3rd vs. OSU, Oct. 10th @ Virginia, Oct. 24th @ Northwestern, Oct. 31st @ Iowa, Nov. 7th vs. Wisconsin, Nov. 21st vs. Purdue

Indiana’s Strength:

With that move, the starting quarterback job goes to Ben Chappell. Chappell threw for over 1,000 yards last season and, unlike Lewis, Chappell threw more touchdowns than interceptions. Andrew Means, the team’s leading receiver is gone and Ray Fisher was the team’s second leading receiver and now he is a cornerback. So just who is Chappell going to throw the ball to besides Lewis? Terrance Turner is an effective pass catcher, but the Hoosiers will really need him to step up and turn into a consistent receiver. The news on the ground game is not much better. Marcus Thigpen is gone, but senior Bryan Payton is ready to shoulder the load. If the offensive line, which returns all five starters, can keep Chappell on his feet, the IU offense could at least be halfway decent.

Indiana’s Weakness:

The defense returns eight starters, but they were easily the worst defense in the Big Ten in 2008. Will that experience turn into results? Jammie Kirlew and Greg Middleton are a capable force on the ends. Kirlew tallied 10.5 sacks last year and Middleton has the potential to be a great pass rusher despite his disappointing 2008 season. With tackle Deonta Mack back to clog the middle, there is no reason for the rush defense to be as bad as they were last year. But there was not much reason for it to be that bad last year either. The secondary might be the more interesting unit to keep an eye on this season. Joe Kleinsmith was third on the team in tackles and will sorely be missed. The absence of Christopher Phillips makes things even more intriguing. Will Fisher be the answer and can Chris Adkins cover some of the best receivers in the Big Ten?

Our Prediction for the 2009 Hoosiers:

Indiana took a big step backwards last year and their only win against a division I opponent was a home game against Northwestern. The Hoosiers never even came close to beating anybody else in the Big Ten. If things do not change quickly, Indiana could be looking at another season with double digit losses.

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