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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Air Force Falcons
Monday, December 27, 2010 at 5:00 pm on ESPN2
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The nation’s top two rushing programs will be on display as the Air Force (8-4) takes on Georgia Tech (6-6) in Shreveport, La. on Monday in the annual Independence Bowl.
The Yellow Jackets ranked first in the FBS with 327.0 rushing yards per game while the Falcons were second with 317.9 yards. Both teams run an option offense, with the Yellow Jackets using a spread version and the Falcons utilizing the triple option. The teams combined for 299 pass attempts this year, so don’t expect a lot of passes.
Georgia Tech will probably be without quarterback Josh Nesbitt, who broke his arm in early November. It is uncertain if he’ll be ready to play. Sophomore Tevin Washington will fill in, but hasn’t been as productive. In Nesbitt’s place, he has rushed for 289 yards and three touchdowns while passing for 292 and two scores. Tailback Anthony Allen has been on fire of late. He has averaged 138.3 yards rushing over the last four games after averaging 86.5 yards over the first eight. Tech will also be without leading receiver Stephen Hill, who was declared ineligible. This doesn’t bode well for the Tech offense which averaged just 21 points over its final five games after averaging 32 points in its first seven.
It may not matter who is quarterbacking the offense if the defense doesn’t improve. The Yellow Jackets are trying a new defensive scheme this year, but gave up 23.1 points over their first seven games compared to 30.4 over the last five. Starting safety Mario Edwards, who ranks third on the team with 68 tackles, also was declared academically ineligible for this game.
Tech will have its hands full against Air Force, which seems to be peaking at the right time. The Falcons have won three in a row by a combined score of 125-65. Air Force is led in rushing by junior Asher Clark, who ran for 1,001 yards and five touchdowns. Quarterback Tim Jefferson has 15 rushing touchdowns and 769 yards on the ground. Another talented back, Jared Tew, might be cleared to play as well, so the Falcon ground attack could be in top form.
Air Force might not be so fortunate on the other side of the ball, though. The Falcons have been fairly week against the run, ranking 100th in the FBS while giving up 195 yards per game. If there is one consolation, it is that Air Force should be familiar with how to stop a pure option attack.
Georgia Tech is 3-0 against Air Force, although the teams haven’t met since 1979. Tech coach Bobby Johnson beat the Falcons five times in a row while coaching Navy, so he could have an advantage there. However, Air Force is a 2.5 point favorite and the total is 56. The Falcon ground game should get rolling in this one and keep the Yellow Jackets off balance. Air Force will beat the spread and the teams will top the total.
The odds makers have the Air Force Falcons as a -3 point favorite with an over/under of 56.
MATT’S PREDICTION: Air Force 31, Georgia Tech 27
Team records:
- Georgia Tech: 6-6 SU, 5-5-1 ATS
- Air Force: 8-4 SU, 4-7 ATS
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets most recently:
- When playing in December are 3-7
- When playing on turf are 6-4
- After outgaining opponent are 4-6
- When playing outside the conference are 5-5
Air Force Falcons most recently:
- When playing in December are 5-5
- When playing on turf are 9-1
- After outgaining opponent are 7-3
- When playing outside the conference are 6-4
A few betting trends to consider:
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Georgia Tech’s last 6 games
- Georgia Tech is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
- Georgia Tech is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Air Force’s last 11 games
- Air Force is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games
- Air Force is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
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