Hyundai Sun Bowl | Predictions & Pick

Hyundai Sun Bowl

vs.

Miami (7-5) vs Notre Dame (7-5)
Friday, December 31, 2010 at 2:00 pm on CBS
Sun Bowl Satdium – El Paso, Texas

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Well the Randy Shannon era is over and the Al Golden has technically begun but this game is stuck in the middle.  It was another disappointing season for the Hurricanes who from the moment they lost to Ohio State seemed to lose their confidence as a team.  It didn’t help that QB and leader Jacory Harris was hurt but he was as much a part of the problem as anything else with his willingness to give the ball to the opposing team.  Harris is probable for the game and still gives Miami its best chance to win.  For that to happen Miami is likely going to need to rely on a defense loaded with athletic talent.  They finished 18th in the country in yards allowed and were an amazing 2nd  in the nation against the pass which is Notre Dame’s preferred method of moving the ball.  If the defense shows and and is into it than even an average performance by Harris and the offense could be enough.  Last year this team was humiliated by Wisconsin in their bowl game.  At the very least they should be looking to erase that memory as they look to the future.

Notre Dame finished the season strong to qualify for a bowl in coach Brian Kelly’s first season.  They had a slew of close losses this season indicating that this team might actually be on the rise with Kelly at the helm.  It might only be the Sun Bowl but a victory over Miami could have an impact beyond the game and they are in decent position with their coach entrenched and the Hurricanes going through a transition.  Backup QB Tommy Rees has proven to be a solid replacement for Dayne Christ but he will have to avoid turnovers for the Fighting Irish to win.  That may seem obvious but he has had two 3 interception games in his four starts.  Miami will put the pressure on him and he will have to make good decisions.  The best one he could make it to zero in on WR Michael Floyd.  Floyd is a super athlete and came on late in the season.  He is the only guy on the ND side who puts a scare in the Hurricanes.

These teams have had some epic battles in the past but it has been a long time since those games and much has changed.  They have had one common opponent, Pittsburgh, with the Hurricanes producing the more convincing victory over their former Big East mates.  Neither team has been good against the number meaning oddsmakers are a little confused about what to expect from week to week.  No surprise there, their coaches are too.

Game Prediction: Look for these teams to feel each other out in a boring 1st quarter.  After that there should be some explosive plays on both sides.  Miami should be able to use their overall team speed, especially on special teams, to set up some short fields and win the game.

Score Prediction:
Miami – 30
Notre Dame – 21

The spread – 3 for Miami.  I like the short number with the Hurricanes being in control for most of the game instead of making you sweat.

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Team records:

• Notre Dame: 7-5 SU, 6-4-2 ATS
• Miami: 7-5 SU, 4-7 ATS

Notre Dame Fighting Irish most recently:

• When playing in December are 2-3
• When playing on turf are 5-5
• After outgaining opponent are 4-6
• When playing outside the conference are 6-4

Miami Hurricanes most recently:

• When playing in December are 6-4
• When playing on turf are 6-4
• After outgaining opponent are 4-6
• When playing outside the conference are 6-4

A few betting trends to consider:

• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Notre Dame’s last 5 games
• Notre Dame is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami’s last 7 games
• Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games