Holiday Bowl | Predictions & Pick

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl

vs.

Washington (6-6) vs Nebraska (10-3)
Thursday December 30 – 10:00 PM EST on ESPN
Qualcomm Stadium – San Diego, California

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This is one rematch the Huskies should have been looking to avoid as the Huskers rolled up Washington 56-21 on the road earlier this season.  Despite having one of the most athletically gifted QBs in the nation in Jake Locker, Washington hasn’t been able to put together any sort of sustained success while he has been on campus.  There have been a couple of upset wins but that is it.  If the Huskies beat Nebraska it will be a huge upset.  To do so they will need an absolute monster of a final game from Locker as well as RB Chris Polk, who just keeps getting better.  That is a pretty tall order given the competition but if Steve Sarkisian has used the extra prep time to come up with a solid gameplan the Huskies do have enough talent to surprise.  At least that is what he has been telling his players since this matchup was announced.  Believing it is another story altogether.

The Nebraska Cornhuskers were hoping for more than the Holiday Bowl as they exit the Big 12 after this season so you have to question their motivation for playing this game.  Throw in an opponent that they have already trounced once this season and this contest seems like a real trap for NU, which struggled some down the stretch.  The key for them is the health of QB Taylor Martinez, not only because he gouged the Huskies in their earlier matchup, but because when he is not right or out of the lineup Nebraska finds it very difficult to score.  Martinez is expected to start and that is the best reason to back Nebraska in a situation where it would be easy for the Huskers to arrive complacent and overconfident.  Martinez, despite success earlier this season, has something to prove.  Add that to a vastly superior team featuring one of the best defenses in the country and the chances for upset are slim.

There is lots of room for complacency but Bo Pelini doesn’t seem like the type of coach to let that kind of thing creep into his Huskers.  Another whooping like back in September might be too much to expect but a convincing win seems like the most likely scenario.  If you are in a bowl confidence pool you might have put Nebraska at the top of that list.

Game Prediction: Look for Nebraska to jump out early and then coast.  When Martinez is on he can be deadly combining the run and the pass and the Nebraska defense will be sharpest in the early going.  The second half might be back and forth but by then the outcome will already be sealed.

Score Prediction:
Nebraska  - 45
Washington – 24

The spread is -14 for the Huskers.  Normally I wouldn’t back a favourite with that much chalk but in this case I think it is a pretty secure bet.

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Team records:

• Washington: 6-6 SU, 4-7-1 ATS
• Nebraska: 10-3 SU, 5-7 ATS

Washington Huskies most recently:

• When playing in December are 3-7
• When playing on grass are 2-8
• After outgaining opponent are 5-5
• When playing outside the conference are 2-8

Nebraska most recently:

• When playing in December are 5-5
• When playing on grass are 6-4
• After being outgained are 8-2
• When playing outside the conference are 9-1

A few betting trends to consider:

• Nebraska is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Nebraska’s last 6 games