Georgia Bulldogs 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Georgia 2008 Record: (10-3, 6-2)
Georgia 2008 Bowl: Capital One Bowl vs. Michigan State (W 24-12)
Georgia Coach: Mark Richt (82-21 at Georgia, 82-21 overall)
Georgia Offensive Coordinator: Mike Bobo
Georgia Defensive Coordinator: Willie Martinez
Georgia Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Caleb King, RB, 247 yards
• Passing: Joe Cox, QB, 151 yards
• Receiving: A.J. Green, WR, 963 yards
• Tackles: Rennie Curran, LB, 115
• Sacks: Rennie Curran, LB, 3.0
• Interceptions: Reshad Jones, S, 5

Notable Georgia Returning Players: OT Justin Anderson, DT Geno Atkins, DE Roderick Battle, OT Clint Boling, LB Akeem Dent, CB Prince Miller, WR Michael Moore, K Blair Walsh

Georgia Key Losses: CB Asher Allen, TE Tripp Chandler, LB Dannell Ellerbe, DT Corey Irvin, WR Mohamed Massaquoi, RB Knowshon Moreno, QB Matthew Stafford, DE Jarius Wynn

The Bulldogs entered last season with unrealistically high expectations as they were the preseason #1 team in the country. I disagreed strongly with this assessment and didn’t make a lot of friends in the Peach State when I said that Georgia could easily lose four games. Well, injuries derailed the team early, their defense betrayed them at times and the Bulldogs finished the year with a 10-3 record after edging Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl. After the season, quarterback Matt Stafford and tailback Knowshon Moreno both declared early for the NFL Draft and were selected in the first round. Can Mark Richt continue his run of success this fall with unproven players at those key positions?

Georgia’s offense averaged over 31 points per game in each of the past two years, largely thanks to the powerful 1-2 punch of Stafford and Moreno. With both gone, Georgia will begin the season with a very inexperienced backfield. However, there is plenty of good news at other positions. The Bulldogs suffered through a lot of injuries last fall on the line but there are six players back who started during last season and sophomore Trinton Sturdivant (who started every game at left tackle in 2007) rejoins the group after missing all of last season due to an ACL injury. I expect Georgia to have one of the conference’s best offensive lines. The wide receiver position also looks strong with superstar sophomore AJ Green lining up next to senior Michael Moore. Expect both, along with freshmen Tavares King and Marlon Brown, to provide a very solid receiving corps.

However, the tale of the tape for 2009 will come from the backfield. Replacing Stafford is 5th year senior Joe Cox, who has only started one game in his entire career. However, Cox has impressed me when he’s played and I’ve always seen him as a very capable quarterback stuck behind a great physical specimen. With Stafford gone, I expect Cox to shine. The tailbacks are a bit more concerning, as sophomores Caleb King and Richard Samuel are expected to assume most of Moreno’s workload. However, neither runs with the fury that Moreno did and they combined for barely over 400 yards last fall. Experience is a major concern and I don’t expect either to make Georgia fans forget the explosive Moreno. On the other hand, both are highly touted prospects running behind a great line, so I expect the Bulldogs to at least field a solid running game. Just don’t expect either tailback to be a gamebreaker. Overall, I think Georgia’s offense is primed for a big year and I expect Cox to put up great numbers in his only season in charge. This is one of the SEC’s best offenses.

No one was more maligned in Athens last fall than defensive coordinator Willie Martinez, especially after allowing 45 points to Georgia Tech in the Bulldogs’ first loss in 7 years to their in-state rival. However, Georgia had a lot of unfortunate injury issues to deal with last year and I think that staying healthy should help a lot this fall. Up front, things begin with perhaps the conference’s best defensive tackle tandem in seniors Geno Atkins and Jeff Owens. Owens missed last season with a knee injury and his return will definitely help the Bulldogs against the run. With such strong defensive tackles, superstar linebacker Rennie Curran, who led the team in tackles last year, should have another great year. With the entire group of starting linebackers back, expect a very strong front seven presence from Georgia this fall.

The secondary will be interesting to watch develop after losing some talented performers, including cornerback Asher Allen a year early to the NFL. Luckily, senior safety Reshad Jones is one of the best in the conference and was a 2nd team All-SEC choice last fall after making 76 tackles and snaring 5 interceptions. However, there are some pretty big holes to fill, especially in Allen’s stead. Overall, the Bulldogs have allowed more points per game compared to the previous season in every single year under Martinez’s tenure and if that trend continues then it will be a disappointing year in Athens and could cost him his job. However, the front seven looks very strong and the secondary is loaded with highly touted players so I expect a much better showing than last year’s 24.5 points per game average and I think that Georgia could have one of the conference’s best defenses.

Now, I need to pause and give Georgia a standing ovation for their schedule. They play the country’s best non-conference schedule: At Oklahoma State, home versus Arizona State and at Georgia Tech. Unfortunately, two of those teams are top 15 caliber opponents and that is going to make things tough for the Dawgs outside of the SEC but I admire their willingness to play anyone. In conference, their draw of a dangerous road trip to Arkansas and home games against LSU and Auburn from the West is pretty tough, though they do avoid both Alabama and Ole Miss. In division play, road trips to Vanderbilt and Tennessee accompany their annual match with Florida in Jacksonville. An interesting fact about Georgia is that they’re 10-2 under Richt coming off of an open week and the Dawgs have the week off before the Florida game this fall. Could UGA spring the upset for the 2 nd time in three years? This is a very tough schedule with only 6 home games and their opening half is one of the country’s most formidable stretches. I have to believe that this is one of the nation’s hardest schedules.

My thoughts on the Bulldogs are almost completely the opposite from this time last year. Preseason 2008, I said things like ‘thin on the lines’, ‘unfocused’ and ‘overrated’. Right now, I believe that the Bulldogs are very deep along both lines, very focused as they’ve avoided trouble off the field and are massively underrated coming into the year. I said last fall that if Georgia brought everyone back, they’d be a strong candidate for the 2009 preseason #1 team. Unfortunately, Stafford and Moreno are gone but I still believe that this is a motivated and deep Bulldog squad which is very strong along both lines and should be one of the conference’s strongest teams this fall. I expect 9 or 10 wins from Georgia in 2009.

Georgia Big Games: Sept. 5th @ Oklahoma State, Sept. 12th vs. South Carolina, Sept. 19th @ Arkansas, Oct. 3rd vs. LSU, Oct. 10th @ Tennessee, Oct. 31st vs. Florida (Jacksonville), Nov. 14th vs. Auburn, Nov. 28th @ Georgia Tech

Georgia’s Strength:

Rennie Curran might not be a household name outside of SEC country, but the junior might be by this time next year. The linebacker tallied 115 tackles, ten tackles-for-loss, three sacks and 14 quarterback hurries last season and was the anchor of the defense. Curran will once again be the anchor this year, but he will have plenty of help from fellow linebacker Akeem Dent. The secondary is just as strong with safety Reshad Jones returning after picking off five passes a year ago. The back seven will be very strong, but the defensive line is not too shabby either. Geno Atkins can be a dominating interior lineman at times and players like Roderick Battle can provide the Bulldogs with a quality pass rush.

Georgia’s Weakness:

Joe Cox might not be Stafford, but he is not a bad replacement either…if he is indeed the replacement. Cox is a savvy veteran who is ready to play right now, but he is being pushed by Logan Gray. Gray is the more athletic prospect with a higher ceiling, but Cox is the safe choice. That covers replacing Stafford, but what about Moreno? Georgia has a slew of talented backs like Caleb King, Richard Samuel and Carlton Thomas, but can they do what Moreno did? Eventually they probably can, but they certainly lack in experience since they are all underclassmen. King is the likely candidate to get the bulk of carries in 2009 after serving as Moreno’s backup in 2008, but this could turn into a dynamic running back by committee type of team.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Bulldogs:

But those rushers will not be as productive without an offensive line. Tackle Trinton Sturdivant is trying to come back from an awful knee injury and just about everybody who played last year is also returning. Yet, much of the line is still pretty young and it remains to be seen if that year of experience will make a big difference. The key will be finding some consistency on the line and, if that happens, Georgia will exceed expectations this year after failing to live up to expectations just a year ago.

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