Gator Bowl | Predictions & Pick

Progressive Gator Bowl

vs.

Michigan (7-5) vs Mississippi State (8-4)
Saturday, January 1, 2010 at 1:30 pm on ESPN2
EverBank Field – Jacksonville, Florida

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The first couple of season of the RichRod era were so forgettable that this year’s 7-5 campaign actually generated a fair amount of buzz.  It is amazing how far this program has fallen isn’t it?  With Denard Robinson’s fast feet leading the way the Wolverines jumped out to am impressive start but they couldn’t keep it going, losing 5 of their last 7 games with Robinson seemingly missing a chunk of each due to injury.  When Robinson is right he is a nightmare for defenses.  His running abilities are nearly unparalleled at the QB position and he can pass well enough to keep defenses honest.  But his style leaves him open to all sorts of punishment and when he is not in the game they are a different team.  All this attention has gone to the offense because the defense has been pretty miserable this year.  Michigan gives up more than 33ppg (102 in the country) and more than 430ypg (105).  They have to outscore opponents to win.

Mississippi State breathed a sigh of relief when their coach didn’t jump for the Gators job. Dan Mullen is doing a great job in Starkville with all of the teams losses this year coming against top SEC teams LSU, Auburn, Alabama and Arkansas.  In fact the Bulldogs almost derailed Auburn’s championship train before it got started losing by only 3 in week 2 of the season.  Even though Mullen gets a lot of credit for offensive genius from his time at Florida it is the defensive side of the ball where Mississippi State really excels.  They are especially stingy against the run which is where Michigan is strongest so it will be a good battle.  FYI – In that game against Auburn they held Cam Newton to just 70 yards rushing.  On offense MSU has a dual threat of their own in Chris Relf.  Relf is big like Newton but not as polished throwing the ball.  He was money down the stretch especially in the Egg Bowl win over Ole Miss.

The Bulldogs are a good team overshadowed by the dominance of the SEC West.  In almost any other conference they would be probably 10-2 instead of 8-4.  Michigan has something building with Denard Robinson but they are so bad on defense they can’t win unless he delivers a jaw-dropping performance.  Mississippi State is not star struck and will lay the wood to the Wolverines who will have to match their physicality.

Game Prediction: The Bulldogs are a very physical team while Michigan now plays a speed oriented finesse style.  In this case the advantage goes to the more physical team who is very battle tested from their schedule and a coach who is among the most highly regarded for his work turning around the program. Michigan will make some plays but the Bulldogs will be able to contain them and score enough to win.

Score Prediction:
Mississippi State – 27
Michigan – 24

The spread -4.5 for Mississippi State.  The Bulldogs are a stout defensive team and should win but there is not much value in this line right now.

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Team records:

• Michigan: 7-5 SU, 3-8 ATS
• Mississippi State: 8-4 SU, 6-5 ATS

Michigan Wolverines most recently:

• When playing in January are 6-4
• When playing on grass are 4-6
• After being outgained are 3-7
• When playing outside the conference are 8-2

Mississippi State Bulldogs most recently:

• When playing in January are 0-1
• When playing on grass are 6-4
• After outgaining opponent are 4-6
• When playing outside the conference are 7-3

A few betting trends to consider:

• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Michigan’s last 6 games
• Michigan is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
• Michigan is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Mississippi State’s last 6 games
• Mississippi State is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games