Florida Atlantic Owls 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Florida Atlantic 2008 Record: (7-6, 4-3)
Florida Atlantic 2008 Bowl: Motor City Bowl vs. Central Michigan (W 24-21)
Florida Atlantic Coach: Howard Schnellenberger (48-48 at Florida Atlantic, 148-125-3 overall)
Florida Atlantic Offensive Coordinator: Daryl Jackson
Florida Atlantic Defensive Coordinator: Kirk Hoza
Florida Atlantic Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: William Rose, RB, 308 yards
• Passing: Rusty Smith, QB, 3,224 yards
• Receiving: Cortez Gent, WR, 935 yards
• Tackles: Ed Alexander, S, 42
• Sacks: Daniel Joseph, DE, 2.0
• Interceptions: Ed Alexander, S, 3

Notable Florida Atlantic Returning Players: WR Chris Bonner, LB Edward Bradwell, TE Jamari Grant, CB Tarvoris Hill, TE Rob Housler, G David Matlock, G Kevin Miller, P Keegan Peterson, DT Josh Savidge, OT Lavoris Williams

Key Losses for FAU: LB George Allen, S Carldayle Brantley, LB Andre Clark, DE Michael Hancock, DT Jervonte Jackson, LB Frantz Joseph, S Greg Joseph, C Nick Paris, RB Charles Pierre, OT John Rizzo, CB Corey Small

The Owls were my overwhelming choice last fall to win the Sun Belt title. However, a 2-5 start during which they lost to three BCS teams and were defeated on a last second Hail Mary at MTSU derailed their title hopes as they started 0-2 in conference play. However, the Owls charged down the stretch to secure a 4-3 conference record and bowl eligibility at 6-6 overall. Their play was rewarded as they defeated Central Michigan in the Motor City Bowl to give Howard Schnellenberger’s team two consecutive bowl victories.

A large part of FAU’s struggles last year was an early injury to their star quarterback, rising senior Rusty Smith, who struggled through the season’s first half with a shoulder dislocation. Despite the injury, Smith still finished the season with over 3,200 passing yards and 24 touchdowns, though he did toss 14 picks. This was a major step back from the year before when he threw for nearly 5,000 yards and the Owls’ offensive production dropped by over five points per game! Expect Smith’s production to rise significantly this fall as his top four receivers (led by Cortez Grant, who caught 60 passes for 935 yards and 9 touchdowns) are all seniors. There is some concern about balance as the Owls lost their top two rushers to graduation and their only returning player with any yardage in 2008 is senior fullback Willie Rose, who had 63 carries last year. The offensive line returns 3 starters and should be more than strong enough to allow Smith and company to cause some damage. If they can get a running game going then this group will be dangerous.

The defense is a much bigger concern. Only three starters return from last year and the Owls lose seven of their top eight tacklers from 2008. FAU had their best rush defense since fully transitioning to D-1A football last year but only senior defensive tackle Josh Savidge returns in the front seven! Expect teams to earn far more on the ground than FAU’s stellar 4.4 yard per carry average in 2008. The linebackers are a virtual unknown as well since the Owls graduated three players who were multiyear starters. In the secondary, junior safety Ed Alexander is a bright spot and should be a big contributor this year. However, they lost TWO 1 st team All-Sun Belt defensive backs from last year and will definitely regress. This season will be a rebuilding year for the Owls on defense and I expect them to allow more points per game than last year’s 28.7 average.

The schedule starts off tough with road games at Nebraska and South Carolina but it does build in two off weeks before the middle of October. Hopefully that will give Schnellenberger’s defense time to improve as the season’s closing run of five road games in the final eight is very difficult. The Owls have to travel to North Texas, Troy and Louisiana during conference play before finishing off with cross-town rival FIU, who pushed the Owls into overtime last year. Overall, I expect Florida Atlantic to field two diametrically opposite units this season. Their offense could be exceptional with Smith at the controls and could be the best in FAU’s short history. However, their defense could struggle with a new front seven and be the worst in FAU’s short history! Thus, I expect to see a lot of shootouts this season and I’m afraid with their defensive concerns that I can’t see them competing for the conference title. However, bowl eligibility seems a good bet for the 3 rd consecutive season.

Florida Atlantic Big Games: Oct. 26th vs. UL-Monroe, Oct. 17th @ North Texas, Nov. 14th vs. Arkansas State, Nov. 21st @ Troy, Dec. 5th @ FIU

Florida Atlantic’s Strength:

But in the end FAU made it to a bowl game for the second straight year and won their bowl game for the second straight year. That is not bad for a team that has not been around very long. And Coach Schnellenberger hopes to make it three bowls in a row this year due to the return of the conference’s top quarterback, Rusty Smith. By this time next year the 6-5 Smith will be working out for the NFL, but for now the senior is looking for one more big season with the Owls. Last year he threw for 3,224 yards and 24 touchdowns. With superstar receiver Cortez Gent back and a few more experienced receiving options with Jamari Grant, Rob Housler and Chris Bonner, the passing attack should be the best in the conference again. And it might have to be with the absence of running backs Charles Pierre and Di’Ivory Edgecomb. Now it is up to Willie Rose and Alfred Morris to keep the offense somewhat balanced.

Florida Atlantic’s Weakness:

The defense was a little disappointing last year. The group had a ton of experience, but still ranked fifth in the conference in total defense. And now they are without eight starters, including the team’s top six tacklers from a year ago. The biggest problem last year was generating pressure as the team only tallied one sack per game. There is no reason to believe the front four will do any better this year with three starters gone. All three starting linebackers have to be replaced, but Edward Bradwell, Malik Eugene and Michael Lockley are upperclassmen who should be able to step in and do a decent job. The strength of the defense is in the secondary where Ed Alexander leads the way. Alexander needs to quickly become the leader of the defense or FAU will have trouble stopping most teams in the Sun Belt.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Owls:

By the end of the 2008 season Florida Atlantic started scoring points. The team only averaged just over 25 points per game on the season, but they averaged nearly 40 points per game over the last four regular season games. Smith will put up some big numbers and the offense will score a lot of points against conference opponents, but they might give up even more points.

Florida Atlantic Betting Odds

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