Fiesta Bowl | Predictions & Pick

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl

vs.

Connecticut (8-4) vs Oklahoma (11-2)
Saturday, January 1, 2010 at 8:30 pm on ESPN
University of Phoenix Stadium – Glendale, Arizona

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It is roundly acknowledged that this is not a super elite Connecticut Huskies team…but they are not horrible either.  The key to the game for UConn is simple, will Jordan Todman, their leading rusher with more than 1500 yards on the season, be able to be effective against the Sooners.  If the answer is yes then their is good reason for Connecticut to be optimistic.  If the answer is no, meaning the Huskies will have to rely on the pass, then UConn could be in for one of the biggest BCS non-championship game whoopings we have ever seen.  Randy Edsall is a very good coach and his guys will be well prepared but they are at a total talent mismatch.  It is possible that Oklahoma come out flat and beats themselves but that is a lot for UConn fans to hope for.
Oklahoma has looked very good at times but their losses to Texas A&M and Missouri show that despite all the talent they have they are prone to lapses.  When their offense is clicking it can be nearly unstoppable with ace QB Landry Jones having the luxury of flipping the ball to slippery Ryan Broyles or handing it off to DeMarco Murray.  He has really developed in his second year, proving to be a worthy heir to Sam Bradford.  One thing that might slow the Sooners down a bit is the loss of OC Kevin Wilson who is now the head coach at Indiana.  When changes occur concentration tends to wane and the Huskies could put a lot of pressure on the Sooners by getting some early stops.  The Sooners also lack a dominating D so UConn might be able to trade some score and extend the game longer than most people expect.

Oklahoma at times looked like the one of the best team in the country while Connecticut is perceived as the worst BCS conference champs.  Putting them in the same game seems like a huge mismatch but the number make it possible for wagerers to like the Huskies as much as the Sooners in this one.  For what is worth the Huskies are much better against the number 8-4 ATS vs 7-6 ATS for the Sooners.

Game Prediction: Connecticut is not going to quit in this one no matter what happens.  They need to be able to respond to Oklahoma’s first punch or this game could get away from them in a heartbeat.  I think the challenge will be making sure that they convert drives into touchdown.  Once they start kicking FGs the game will be over in a hurry are if they not careful.

Score Prediction:
Oklahoma – 37
Connecticut – 21

The spread -16.5 for Oklahoma.  I never like giving away that many points as I think this one will be a little closer than most expect.

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Team records:

• Connecticut: 8-4 SU, 7-4 ATS
• Oklahoma: 11-2 SU, 8-5 ATS

Connecticut Huskies most recently:

• When playing in January are 2-0
• When playing on grass are 9-1
• After being outgained are 9-1
• When an underdog on the road are 4-6

Oklahoma Sooners most recently:

• When playing in January are 3-5
• When playing on grass are 9-1
• After outgaining opponent are 6-4
• When favored at home are 10-0

A few betting trends to consider:

• Connecticut is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Connecticut’s last 6 games
• Oklahoma is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma’s last 6 games