Cotton Bowl | Predictions & Pick

AT&T Cotton Bowl

vs.

LSU (10-2) vs Texas A&M (9-3)
Friday, January 7, 2011 at 8:00 pm on ESPN
Cowboys Stadium – Arlington, Texas

LSU has to be one of the most maligned 10-2 teams in recent memory.  Their QB plays has been pretty awful most of the season forcing them to win with their defense, which against most opponents they do.  They have so underperformed this season that despite their 10-2 record they are only 5-7 ATS.  Still their only regular season losses were to Auburn and Arkansas, both of who made the BCS and their bonafides include wins over 6 bowl teams including Mississippi State, Florida and Alabama, all of whom looked pretty darn good is dismantling their bowl opponents.  Once again the Tigers have a top notch defense with a couple of fabulous players up front and on the back end in Drake Nevis and Patrick Peterson.  Both are game changers, especially Peterson who also sometimes gets his hands on the ball on special teams as well.  If these guys had a QB they could easily be the best team in the country.

I am still surprised that Texas A&M has been able to collect as many wins as they have this season.  After losing three in a row, to Oklahoma State, Arkansas and Mizzou, it looked like the Aggies were in for another disappointing season but they closed with six straight victories, riding the impressive play of backup QB Ryan Tannehill who replaced accomplished starter Jerrod Johnson.  With Tanneyhill at the controls they avoided costly turnovers which you can’t afford if you are going to win in a tough conference like the Big 12.  Tanneyhill has an imposing top target in WR Jeff Fuller who is 6’4″ and a nice combo to hand off to in Cyrus Gray and Cristine Michael.  The defense has also improved greatly over the course of the season holding Oklahoma to 19 points and Nebraska to just six, both  in victories.  Not quite the Wrecking Crew of old but this balance and improvement has Mike Sherman pretty in a pretty comfortable position even if they lose the bowl game.

These two teams used to play regularly but haven’t met since 1995.  For what it is worth A&M won the last five against the Tigers in what used to be a great non-conference rivalry.  This season the Aggies have exceeded expectations while the Tigers, despite only having two losses, have failed to meet them.  It presents an interesting opportunity for the two squads to meet in the middle.  Both want to use this game to put some fear into rivals going into next season.

Game Prediction: In this game featuring a couple of very good defenses QB play will be the difference.  As a result I like the Aggies chances.  Tanneyhill will not have a huge game but has shown he can rise to the occasions when it matters.  One deep ball to Fuller could be the difference as Peterson will lock him down most of the game.

Score Prediction:

Texas A&M – 24
LSU – 17

The spread -1.5 for LSU.  I really don’t like their offense in a big game so I am backing the Aggies as a short underdog.

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Team records:

• Texas A&M: 9-3 SU, 7-4 ATS
• LSU: 10-2 SU, 5-6 ATS

Texas A&M Aggies Betting Trends:

• When playing in January are 0-3
• When playing on turf are 3-7
• After outgaining opponent are 6-4
• When playing outside the conference are 7-3

LSU Tigers Betting Trends:

• When playing in January are 4-3
• When playing on turf are 8-2
• After being outgained are 8-2
• When playing outside the conference are 9-1

A few betting trends to consider:

• Texas A&M is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
• LSU is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games

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