Colorado State Rams 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Colorado-State 2008 Record: (7-6, 4-4)
Colorado-State 2008 Bowl: New Mexico Bowl vs. Fresno State (W 40-35)
Colorado-State Coach: Steve Fairchild (7-6 at Colorado State, 7-6 overall)
Colorado-State Offensive Coordinator: Greg Peterson
Colorado-State Defensive Coordinator: Larry Kerr
Colorado-State Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Dion Morton, WR, 129 yards
• Passing: Klay Kubiak, QB, 252 yards
• Receiving: Rashaun Greer, WR, 1,114 yards
• Tackles: Mychal Sisson, LB, 105
• Sacks: Elijah-Blu Smith, CB, 1
• Interceptions: Klint Kubiak, S, 1; Nick Oppenneer, CB, 1; Gerard Thomas, CB, 1

Notable Colorado-State Returning Players: LB Ricky Brewer, G Adrian Martinez, DT James Morehead, FB Zac Pauga, OT Cole Pemberton, G Shelley Smith, C Time Walter

Colorado-State Key Losses: RB Kyle Bell, QB Billy Farris, S Jake Galusha, DE Tommie Hill, LB Jeff Horinek, RB Gartrell Johnson, S Mike Pagnotta, DT Matt Rupp, K Jason Smith, TE Kory Sperry, OT Dane Stratton

Last season marked the beginning of a new era at Colorado State as longtime head coach Sonny Lubick retired, leaving former CSU quarterback Steve Fairchild in charge. The program, which attained national prominence in Lubick’s early years, had fallen off and Fairchild appeared to have a rebuilding job ahead. However, he guided the team to a 6-6 record and followed it up with a New Mexico Bowl victory to give CSU their first winning record in five seasons! Fairchild faces an equally stiff task this fall following up 2008’s success and it will be interesting to see if he can push CSU back towards the prominence enjoyed around the turn of the century.

On offense, there are six starters back but the losses come at key positions. Sophomore Klay Kubiak would appear to have an edge on the competition at quarterback after serving as the backup last year but he missed the spring with shoulder surgery and the situation under center is as clear as mud. The tailback position is a major concern as well, as the top two rushers from 2008 depart, including 4 th round NFL draft pick Gartrell Johnson. Junior John Mosure was solid in limited action last season and appears to be the favorite to take over in Johnson’s stead. Despite these losses, I think the running game will be solid this season thanks to the presence of an offensive line that brings back four starters, all of whom are seniors. Guard Shelley Smith was a 2 nd team All-MWC selection last year and should anchor the group. The wide receivers also look very good, led by seniors Dion Mortron (51 catches, 859 yards, 10 touchdowns in 2008 ) and Rashaun Greer (63 catches, 1114 yards, 3 touchdowns). I expect both to be a huge help to whoever wins the starting quarterback job. Fairchild is a former NFL offensive coordinator and he calls all the plays so I expect the Rams to fight for the most balanced offense possible. That means I expect a solid run game to emerge quickly behind the veteran offensive line and the potential for a great passing game is there thanks to Greer and Morton. The big question is at quarterback where four players will battle it out for the starting job. If someone emerges from the pack with authority, Colorado State could have a very productive offense and exceed expectations.

The defense struggled at times last year, allowing 190 yards per game on the ground and over 30 points per game. I’m not so sure that they’ll be any better against the run this fall with only one starter back on the defensive line. My pessimism towards their ability to stop the run is furthered by the return of only one linebacker from last season. Sophomore Mychal Sisson was a Freshman All-American after racking up 105 tackles, tops on the team, but my enthusiasm was tempered when Rocky Brewer, who was 2 nd with 103 tackles, was suspended for the entire 2009 season. There is virtually no experience back next to Sisson. The secondary appears much stronger, returning three starters. They should benefit mightily from the return of senior safety Klint Kubiak, who missed half the year last season due to injury and both cornerbacks appear solid. However, all three starters only combined for 3 interceptions last fall, so the potential for the big play appears muted. For Colorado State to improve on defense this fall, they’re going to have to improve upon last year’s total of 10 sacks, find a way to intercept more passes and establish a solid front seven after losing most of their experience. That seems like a hefty task and I’m afraid that I don’t see the Rams improving any on defense in 2009.

The schedule is a toss up. Colorado State has six road games, including trips to archrival Colorado, conference favorites BYU and TCU and a dangerous UNLV squad. The home schedule also includes a very tough non-conference matchup against Nevada and a homecoming date against Utah. The Rams will need to repeat their stellar 4-2 home record from 2008 if they want to compete for a bowl game. However, I don’t think that is in the cards as CSU appears likely to regress on defense while struggling to find a triggerman on offense. In all likelihood, Fairchild’s second season appears primed for a step back and I will be surprised to see the Rams in a bowl game.

Colorado-State Big Games: Sept. 5th @ Colorado, Oct. 10th vs. Utah, Oct. 17th @ TCU, Nov. 7th @ UNLV, Nov. 21st @ New Mexico, Nov. 27th vs. Wyoming

Colorado State’s Strength:

The best unit on the Rams could end up being their offensive line. Four starters return and guard Shelley Smith should compete for all conference honors. Most of the linemen are seasoned veterans now and they should be able to dominate most opponents. The other strength is in the defensive back seven where linebackers Mychal Sisson and Ricky Brewer are back to lead a relatively experienced unit. The secondary may lack a superstar, but there are certainly plenty of options for defensive coordinator Larry Kerr. Elijah-Blu Smith, Klint Kubiak, Nick Oppenneer and Gerard Thomas are all capable playmakers and could be up for a good season.

Colorado State’s Weakness:

However, the defense will not be any better than they were last year if the front four cannot get pressure on the quarterback. Colorado State ranked dead last in the nation in sacks last season and that has to change. Most of the linemen who were ineffective last year are gone, which could be a good thing, but this defense will get torched if the new look front line cannot get into the backfield. On the other side of the ball it is the skill players that will have a new look. Quarterback Billy Farris is gone and so are running backs Gartrell Johnson and Kyle Bell. Johnson pretty much carried this team late in the 2008 campaign and finding a new rusher will not be easy. Yet, with an experienced line, it is feasible that a player like John Mosure could be in for a surprisingly decent 2009 season.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Rams:

Colorado State will definitely depend on the ground game as much as they can, but they will need to find a steady quarterback too. Farris was not always the most efficient quarterback around, but he got the job done. Now the battle for the starting position is between Klay Kubiak and Grant Stucker. Kubiak has a little more game experience, but his experience last season resulted in zero touchdown passes and two interceptions. Either way, the quarterback will be happy to have 1,000 yard receiver Rashaun Greer back.

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