Colorado Buffaloes 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Colorado 2008 Record: (5-7, 2-6)
Colorado 2008 Bowl: none
Colorado Coach: Dan Hawkins (13-24 at Colorado, 99-40-1 overall)
Colorado Offensive Coordinator: Mark Helfrich
Colorado Defensive Coordinator: Ron Collins
Colorado Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Rodney Stewart, RB, 622 yards
• Passing: Cody Hawkins, QB, 1,892 yards
• Receiving: Scotty McKnight, WR, 519 yards
• Tackles: Jeff Smart, LB, 118
• Sacks: Marquez Herrod, DE, 4.0
• Interceptions: Cha’Pelle Brown, CB, 2; Shaun Mohler, LB, 2

Notable Colorado Returning Players: CB Jalil Brown, OT Bryce Givens, G Ryan Miller, S Anthony Perkins, RB Darrell Scott, CB Jimmy Smith, WR Josh Smith, OT Nate Solder

Colorado Key Losses: S D.J. Dykes, DT George Hypolite, LB Brad Jones, DE Maurice Lucas, CB Gardner McKay, DT Brandon Nicolas, C Daniel Sanders, S Ryan Walters, WR Patrick Williams

Last season was a sorely disappointing year for the Buffalo faithful as their team regressed to 5-7 in Dan Hawkins’ third season. The Buffs finished the year on a 1-4 skid and their offense regressed by more than a touchdown. Now entering his 4th season, Hawkins will have to hope that his tireless recruiting finally pays off. Earlier this year he was quoted as saying that nothing less than a ten win season would be acceptable in 2009 and he was widely ridiculed for it. However, with most of the offense back and a ton of talent on hand, I wouldn’t be shocked if his players made him look smart. Can the Buffs finally begin to aspire to the success that Hawkins enjoyed at Boise State?

For a coach brought in because of his creative offensive attack, Hawkins sure has struggled to produce points. Last season’s offense only averaged 20 points per game, which was the worst in the Big XII! Hawkins’ son Cody is expected to start for the 3rd consecutive season under center and I really think he will be a much improved passer this fall after throwing 27 picks in the last two seasons. He is also mobile and should contribute on the ground as well. What should really help him is establishing a strong running game and Colorado has two very talented young backs ready to make it happen. Sophomores Rodney Stewart and Darrell Scott (the #1 tailback recruit in the country!) both struggled with injuries last season and I think a return to health should produce the best rushing game by far in the Hawkins era.

It also helps that Colorado returns four starters on the offensive line after being hit hard with injuries last fall. Sophomore guard Ryan Miller redshirted due to injury after earning freshman All-American honors in 2007 and the Buffalo line could start 4 underclassmen this year. That’s normally not a good sign but all had extensive playing time last season and all were highly recruited coming out of high school. This has to be the first decent line that Hawkins has fielded since coming to Boulder. The receivers are also experienced, led by juniors Scotty McKnight and John Smith, who combined for 8 touchdown catches last fall. With so much young talent back across the board, I think that Colorado is ready for a breakout season. After being racked with injuries last fall, I expect a healthier season to produce a much stronger line and a much stronger running attack, which should give Hawkins plenty of time to move the ball through the air. I expect a big leap forward for the Buffs on offense this season.

Defensively, Colorado has struggled the past two years, allowing over 29 points per game in each campaign. Last season’s big problem was that opposing teams averaged nearly 4.5 yards per carry and that kept the defense of the field way too much. This fall, their defense could have similar problems as all four starters are gone from last year’s line. The most experienced returnee is junior end Marquez Herrod, who had 4 sacks last fall in a backup role and the defensive tackles are especially green. However, I like the potential for an improved pass rush with stud freshman Nick Kasa lining up opposite Herrod. However, I don’t expect the run defense to suffer terribly because the linebackers behind the big guys in the middle are expected to be very good in 2009. Seniors Jeff Smart and Shaun Mohler return after combining for 215 stops as the team’s top two tacklers last season. Even better news is that superstar freshman Jon Major, who was one of the best high school players in the country two years ago and had to redshirt due to injury last season, is now fully healthy and should immediately contribute at the other linebacker position. I think that with these three patrolling behind the new line, the run game might actually be improved because this is the North’s best group of linebackers.

The pass defense was also troublesome last season, allowing opponents to complete nearly 65 percent of their attempts. However, both cornerbacks return and senior Cha’pelle Brown has been one of the conference’s most consistent performers the last two seasons. Hawkins’ theme of talented underclassmen will likely continue at the safety position as sophomore Anthony Perkins was very solid last fall as he actually started a few games and made 40 tackles! All of the candidates to start at the other spot are young as well. I think that Hawkins might have more talent on the field this season in the secondary and the pass defense should at least be solid. Overall, the Buffaloes have a ton of young talent that is expected to take on a bigger role this season but I think that Colorado will field an improved defense thanks to a great corps of linebackers and a solid secondary.

The schedule is going to be very interesting. The non-conference schedule includes a visit from rival Colorado State and weeknight trips to Toledo and West Virginia! Talk about pitfalls…… In conference, things aren’t much friendlier as Colorado’s first two games are against Texas and Kansas! The draw from the south includes trips to visit the Longhorns AND the Oklahoma State Cowboys, giving them one of the toughest draws in the North. The good news is that the Buffs have three home division games and host most of their rivals in Boulder.

Honestly, I’ve been using Hawkins’ struggles to establish Colorado as a power in the Big XII as a case study in the past two years as to why Boise State wouldn’t be a contender in a BCS conference. Hawkins has recruited a ton of talent to Boulder in the past three years and even upset Oklahoma two years ago (sound familiar, Boise?) when the Sooners were unbeaten! However, the high speed grindstone of Big XII play has prevented Hawkins from fully implementing his offense and has only produced 13 wins in three years. Meanwhile, Boise State runs the same system with less talent and they’ve produced 35 wins in the same time span! What’s the difference? Hawkins actually has to play big boy competition (unlike Boise State) and he needs the horses to run in the Big XII.

Well, I think that this is the year that thoroughbreds run wild in Boulder. An experienced quarterback playing behind an improved line is a good start and the expected strong rushing attack should make the Buffs multidimensional and dangerous. The back seven looks very strong on defense and the front four has some very talented young players. While I’m concerned about the new D-Line holding the point of attack, Colorado has the pieces in place to make a run at the Big XII North. However, a tough schedule draw featuring trips to Oklahoma State and Texas will probably prevent them from winning the division. Hawkins is on the hot seat but I honestly think that he’s doing a great job. He’s recruited a ton of talent and needs time to see all of these young stars develop. The university administration needs to be very careful not to ruin what could be the start of an extended run of success. That said, I expect Colorado to win seven or eight games this season and stop the discussions about Hawkins’ job security. Watch out for the Buffs in 2010 because this team could be loaded.

Colorado Big Games: Sept. 5th vs. Colorado St, Oct. 1st @ WVU, Oct. 10th @ Texas, Oct. 17th vs. Kansas, Oct. 31st vs. Mizzou, Nov. 19th @ Ok St, Nov. 27th vs. Nebraska

Colorado’s Strength:

While the rest of the Big 12 was putting up huge numbers offensively, Colorado was lingering behind and struggling to score points. With just about everybody returning to the offense, the Buffaloes could be right up there with the rest of the conference in terms of offensive output. Quarterback Cody Hawkins is once again feeling heat from Tyler Hansen. Hawkins took a majority of the snaps in 2008, but Hansen was always looking right over his shoulder. That situation has not changed in the spring of 2009 and it is possible that there could be a two quarterback system in the fall. With Scotty McKnight and Josh Smith back to catch passes, both quarterbacks could be very successful. Having Rodney Stewart and Darrell Scott in the backfield will help as well.

Colorado’s Weakness:

But all the talent in the world will not make the offense any better if the line cannot give them time and space to operate. The entire starting line returns except center Daniel Sanders, but it remains to be seen if that is a good thing or not. Last year’s group was so young that a year of experience could be huge and getting a couple guys like Mike Iltis back from injury will help, but how much of a difference will it really make? The defense did pretty well all things considered, but most of the front line needs to be replaced and if the group fails to get any pressure on the quarterback than the secondary, led by corner Cha’Pelle Brown, will not have the conference’s best pass defense again. The good news is corners Jalil Brown and Jimmy Smith are also back, but if players like Marquez Herrod, Conrad Obi and Lagrone Shields cannot get into the backfield, the secondary will have a much tougher time this year than they did last year.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Buffaloes:

Generally it is the third year in the new coaching regime where things start to turn around. That did not happen in 2008, but the Buffaloes and Coach Hawkins have plenty of excuses for the lack of success. The excuses should run out this year and anything but a bowl game will be considered a big disappointment. The schedule is never easy in the Big 12, but this is a group that should be able to pull off an upset or two…now they just have to win the games they are supposed to win.

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