Chick-fil-A Bowl | Predictions & Pick

Chick-fil-A Bowl

vs.

Florida State (9-4) vs South Carolina (9-4)
Friday, December 31, 2010 at 7:30 pm on ESPN
Georgia Dome – Atlanta, Georgia

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With coaching changes at Miami and Florida, Florida State is enjoying its positioning in the Sunshine State these days.  Add to that an appearance in the ACC Championship Game and a solid bowl opponent and it makes for a pretty good beginning to the post Bowden era at FSU.  As this is written it is still a mystery as to whether QB Christian Ponder will make the start against South Carolina.  If he is out it is a huge blow as back up E.J. Manuel is a little too loose with the football.  He has skills but Ponder is key to the offense running smoothly.  2010 marked the return of the Seminoles defensive prowess.  Although not all the way back to their heydays in the 90′s this team gives up only 20ppg and has speed all over the field.  They really attack the quarterback and are effective against the run.  The hard part will be finding a CB that can matchup with freak WR Alshon Jeffery.  FSU is in for a very tough game.

As the Florida Gators took a step back their former coach Steve Spurrier and his team took a step forward.  They made it all the way to the SEC Championship game before losing to Auburn for a second time but count victories over 7 teams that made a bowl among their nine victories.  The difference this year has been the running game led by super frosh Marcus Lattimore.  Lattimore rushed for more than 1100 yards, scored 17 TDs and most importantly took some pressure off of QB Stephen Garcia.  As a result Garcia settled down and showed marked improvement, connecting again and again with Jeffery who is probably the most intimidating receiver in college football.  A more reliable offense combined with a stout defense made South Carolina a team to be reckoned with in the SEC East this season and a favourite for next season as well.  A bowl win would provide even more momentum for 2011.

With these two teams it should be a hard hitting affair in the dome.  These two teams have never met but have losing in their conference championship games in common.  They also had one common opponent this season, Clemson, who FSU barely beat (16-13) while SC whooped their instate rivals 29-7.  The Gamecocks are the favourite in this one for good reason.

Game Prediction: This game will definitely be a physical battle but South Carolina has the better team and the more experienced coach.  Put them together and the Gamecocks should win even though Spurrier has been a little snakebit at the helm.

Score Prediction:
South Carolina – 31
Florida State – 21

The spread – 3 for South Carolina and hasn’t moved much since it was released.  This is pretty fair value for the Gamecocks who are very good despite the four losses (remember two are to Auburn).

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Team records:

• Florida State: 9-4 SU, 6-6 ATS
• South Carolina: 9-4 SU, 7-5 ATS

Florida State Seminoles most recently:

• When playing in December are 4-2
• When playing on turf are 6-4
• After being outgained are 8-2
• When playing outside the conference are 7-3

South Carolina Gamecocks most recently:

• When playing in December are 1-2
• When playing on turf are 3-5
• After being outgained are 5-5
• When playing outside the conference are 8-2

A few betting trends to consider:

• Florida State is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Florida State’s last 11 games
• Florida State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
• South Carolina is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
• The total has gone OVER in 7 of South Carolina’s last 10 games