Champs Sports Bowl
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vs.
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North Carolina State (8-4) vs West Virginia (9-3)
Tuesday, December 28, 2010 at 6:30 pm on ESPN
Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium – Orlando, Florida
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Led by QB Russell Wilson the Wolfpack finally had the success they have been hoping for since coach Tom O’Brien arrived. An 8-4 record is pretty good but this team has to be disappointed given that they had a chance to play in the ACC title game and blew it against Maryland the last week of the season. Would they have beaten Virginia Tech, probably not, but it would have been an accomplishment for this program just to compete in that game. Even as they were piling up wins I have found this team to not be very impressive. I am not a big fan of Wilson and this team seems to lack the toughness and physicality that O’Brien was known for when he was winning at Boston College. This is a very solid team in all facets of the game but they are going to have their hands full against an underrated West Viginia squad.
There is some weird stuff going on with West Virginia. They have essentially made a coaching change but still have this bowl game and all of next season to make the transition. Time will tell whether this was a smart play or something not to do in the future. Either way I really like this WVU squad against NC State. Offensively this team hasn’t been as explosive as hoped for this year, especially RB Noel Devine, who some thought might merit some Heisman attention. However, on the defensive side of the ball the Mountaineers have been very impressive. They are second in the nation in points allowed and as every website will tell you they have not given up more than 21 points in any game this season. This team has really changed its identity, but that will be shortlived with new OC and eventual head coach Dana Holgorson on board.
These two teams have never met but did have one common opponent this season. As mentioned earlier, NC State lost at Maryland to close the season with everything on the line, giving up 38 points. Meanwhile, back in September West Virginia beat Maryland by two TDs at home. It may not be the fairest of comparisons given timing and location but since I like the WVU side I think it reinforces backing the Mountaineers.
Game Prediction: I would look for a bit of a sluggish start with WVU dominating in the second half once they make some adjustments and realize that despite their odd coaching situation they are the better team.
Score Prediction:
West Virginia – 28
NC State - 13
The spread is -2.5 for West Virginia…A great line for WVU backers. Don’t wait!.
Team records:
- North Carolina State: 8-4 SU, 8-3 ATS
- West Virginia: 9-3 SU, 8-3 ATS
North Carolina State Wolfpack most recently:
- When playing in December are 3-3
- When playing on grass are 6-4
- After outgaining opponent are 6-4
- When playing outside the conference are 6-4
West Virginia Mountaineers most recently:
- When playing in December are 7-3
- When playing on grass are 3-7
- After outgaining opponent are 6-4
- When playing outside the conference are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
- North Carolina State is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of North Carolina State’s last 6 games
- West Virginia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of West Virginia’s last 7 games
- West Virginia is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games
here is some weird stuff going on with West Virginia. They have essentially made a coaching change but still have this bowl game and all of next season to make the transition. Time will tell whether this was a smart play or something not to do in the future.