Capital One Bowl:
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vs.
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#9 Michigan State +315 (11-1, 7-1) versus #16 Alabama -375 (9-3, 5-3)
Saturday January 1 1PM ET ESPN,
Citrus Bowl Stadium, Orlando FL
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One season ago, the Alabama Crimson Tide were winning the national championship, while the Michigan State Spartans were losing to Texas Tech in the Alamo Bowl and ending their season with a losing record. What a difference a year makes as the Crimson Tide and Spartans meet in the Capital One Bowl in Orlando.
The Spartans finished the season with 11 victories, a school record, and a share of the Big Ten championship with Ohio State and Wisconsin. They are appearing in a bowl game for the 21st time in their history, and for the fourth consecutive season – something they haven’t accomplished since the 1987-1990 seasons.
The Crimson Tide began the season as the pre-season No.1 ranked team in the country. But an upset loss at South Carolina was the first of three loses they suffered on the season, culminating with a tough loss to Auburn in the Iron Bowl after they posted a 21-0 first quarter advantage.
Three loses in a season may not seem like much, but when you post a combined record of 26-2 over the previous two seasons, expectations tend to increase.
The Crimson Tide will be playing in a bowl game for the 57th time, posting a 31-22-3 record in previous games played. This game marks the sixth consecutive season that Alabama will have qualified for post-season play.
Both teams are loaded with outstanding offensive talent.
The Spartans rely on a balanced attack. The ground game features Edwin Baker, who gained 1,187 yards and scored 13 touchdowns, and Le’Veon Bell, who chipped in an additional 592 yards and eight touchdowns.
In the passing attack, head coach Mark Dantonio has full confidence in quarterback Kirk Cousins to deliver in the clutch. Cousins passed for 2,705 yards and 20 touchdowns, completing 67.5 percent of his passes. The leading receiver for Michigan State is wide receiver B.J. Cunningham, who caught a team-high 50 receptions and nine touchdowns. Fellow wide out Mark Dell grabbed 49 catches and led the club with 761 receiving yards to go with six touchdowns.
The defense is led by the exploits of sensational senior linebacker Greg Jones, who recorded a team-best 98 tackles, including eight tackles for loss. The Spartans also forced 17 interceptions, placing them nationally in the Top 20 in that statistic. Trenton Robinson led the club with four picks.
As for the Crimson Tide, Nick Saban can also look to a balanced offensive attack, though they tend to rely on the running game to set up their passing attack. After all, when you have the reigning Heisman Trophy winner in senior Mark Ingram and the capable Trent Richardson, why wouldn’t you look to establish the run first?
Ingram gained 816 yards, scored 11 touchdowns, while Richardson gained 658 yards, and averaged 6.5 yards per carry.
The passing game doesn’t see a drop off in abilities. Quarterback Greg McElroy passed for 2,767 yards and 19 touchdowns, completing a whopping 70.6 percent of his passes. The incredibly talented Julio Jones is the main target of the Tide’s passing attack, and he responded with 75 receptions for 1,084 yards and seven touchdowns. Marquis Maze (34 receptions) and Darius Hanks (32 catches) provide complimentary options for McElroy.
Defensively, linebacker Courtney Underwood is the man to watch, having recorded 11 ½ tackles for loss and a team-best five quarterback sacks.
These are two teams are evenly matched and have played well in big games against big opponents this season. The key for the Spartans will be protecting the football, as Alabama was a +10 in turnover ratio this season. This game will be closer than the experts think, but the Crimson Tide will find a way to win it in the end.
The odds makers have the Alabama Crimson Tide as a -10 point favorite with an over/under of 52.
Matt’s Free Prediction: Alabama 28, Michigan State 24
Team records:
- Michigan State: 11-1 SU, 6-5 ATS
- Alabama: 8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS
Michigan State Spartans most recently:
- When playing in January are 1-2
- When playing on grass are 9-1
- After being outgained are 5-5
- When playing outside the conference are 6-4
Alabama Crimson Tide most recently:
- When playing in January are 3-2
- When playing on grass are 7-3
- After outgaining opponent are 8-2
- When playing outside the conference are 9-1
A few betting trends to consider:
- Michigan State is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Michigan State’s last 7 games
- Alabama is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games
- Alabama is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
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