BYU Cougars 2009 Football Betting Preview

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BYU 2008 Record: (10-3, 6-2)
BYU 2008 Bowl: Las Vegas Bowl vs. Arizona (L 21-31)
BYU Coach: Bronco Mendenhall (38-13 at BYU, 38-13 overall)
BYU Offensive Coordinator: Robert Anae
BYU Defensive Coordinator: Jamie Hill
BYU Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Harvey Unga, RB, 1,132 yards
• Passing: Max Hall, QB, 3,957 yards
• Receiving: Dennis Pitta, TE, 1,083 yards
• Tackles: Matt Bauman, LB, 108
• Sacks: Jan Jorgensen, DE, 5.0
• Interceptions: Brandon Howard, CB, 1; Jordan Pendleton, S, 1; Matt Putnam, DE, 1; Andrew Rich, S, 1

Notable BYU Returning Players: LB Coleby Clawson, DE Brett Denney, LB Dhawn Doman, CB Scott Johnson, K Mitch Payne, OT Matt Reynolds, DT Russell Tialavea

BYU Key Losses: LB Matt Ah You, G Travis Bright, WR Austin Collie, G Ray Feinga, S Kellen Fowler, LB David Nixon, OT David Oswald, WR Michael Reed, C Dallas Reynolds, P C.J. Santiago, S David Tafuna, RB Fui Vakapuna

Hopes were high entering 2008 for the Cougars and many people pegged them as favorites to win the conference title. I was not in that camp and got a lot of negative responses from BYU fans when I picked their team to finish 3 rd in the league with a 6-2 record. However, my prognostication came true as the Cougars lost to both Utah and TCU and finished with a 6-2 record and a 3 rd place finish. My major concern was BYU replacing most of their defense and that bore fruit as the Cougars fielded their worst defense in three years. Despite some tough losses, including the bowl game, BYU still finished 10-3, good enough for a season ending 25 th ranking nationally. This fall, the big concern is on the offense as only four starters are back from last year’s exceptional group.

However, I’m not nearly as concerned about BYU’s offense this fall as I was about their defense in 2008. The biggest reason for my optimism? Senior quarterback Max Hall, who threw for 3,957 yards and 35 touchdowns against only 14 interceptions last year, returns and is undoubtedly the best offensive player in the conference. His leading rusher, junior Harvey Unga, is also back after rushing for 1,100+ yards and 11 touchdowns last fall, earning him 2 nd team All-MWC honors. Hall also will have one of his favorite targets back in senior tight end Dennis Pitta, a back to back 1 st team All-MWC choice who caught 83 passes for 1,083 yards and 6 touchdowns a year ago. The big concerns are at wide receiver and on the offensive line. There receivers have virtually no experience and I expect BYU to get multiple tight ends on the field more often than last year as back up Andrew George caught 6 touchdowns last fall. However, with the pass-happy nature of the Cougars’ attack I would be very surprised if a few stars weren’t born this fall catching passes from Hall. The offensive line only brings back one starter, sophomore left tackle Matt Reynolds but BYU replacing linemen concerns me less than other schools because many of their players go on Mormon missions and develop physically for a year or two before returning to the team and there is seemingly an endless line of agile big linemen appearing out of nowhere every fall. While BYU’s line won’t be nearly as good as last season’s group, which featured a 2 year starter, two 3 year starters and a four year starter, I still think that they’ll field one of the conference’s best units. Overall, BYU should still be very good on offense and I would not be surprised one bit of the Cougars turn out to be the conference’s best.

On defense, the Cougars bring back seven starters after only returning three a year ago. The Fightin’ Mormon defense was still very good last season despite all of the new faces, allowing only 22 points per game. This fall’s group could easily be better as the return a lot more experience. Up front, the Cougars have a very veteran line, led by two time 1 st team All-MWC senior defensive end Jan Jorgensen, who has 19 sacks in the last two seasons. BYU’s starters are all seniors with at least a full year’s experience starting under their belts. Expect the Cougars to be much better against the run after allowing opponents to average 140 yards per game on the ground last fall. Three linebackers return in the Cougs’ 3-4 scheme, led by senior Matt Bauman, who recorded 108 tackles and two sacks in 2008. All three returnees are seniors as well and should only enhance the BYU run defense. The secondary is a concern as it returns only one starter, senior safety Scott Johnson, whose 59 tackles from 2008 is the 3 rd best among returning players. However, I’m not sure that the large number of new starters will have a major effect this fall as BYU has been extremely consistent against the pass the last three seasons despite fielding three very different defenses. The Cougars have not allowed less than 205 passing yards and haven’t allowed more than 216 during that span! However, there is no question that they are much more likely to be beaten in the passing game and the new secondary should expect to be tested early and often in lieu of the Cougars’ strong rush defense. Regardless of my concerns about the pass defense, I still expect BYU to have one of the conference’s strongest defenses thanks to seven returning senior starters.

The schedule is also very friendly for the Cougars, who host both TCU and archrival Utah. Furthermore, they also host an improved Air Force team and they don’t face a road trip to a team I have picked in the conference’s upper half. The non-conference schedule is where the Cougars could run into trouble as they open the season in Dallas against Oklahoma, travel all the way to New Orleans to face Tulane and then host Florida State in consecutive weeks. While I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cougars win one of their games against BCS opposition, I will be shocked to see them win both and these two games are the biggest reason that I don’t expect them to contend for a BCS bowl this fall. However, BYU has the conference’s most explosive offense and one of the conference’s best defenses. They feature three of the conference’s best players in Hall, Pitta and Jorgensen and this senior class knows nothing but winning after posting a 32-7 record in their first three seasons. I fully expect BYU to win the Mountain West and post a ten win season in 2009.

BYU Big Games: Sept. 5th vs. Oklahoma, Sept. 19th vs. Florida State, Oct. 10th @ UNLV, Oct. 24th vs. TCU, Nov. 21st vs. Air Force, Nov. 28th vs. Utah

Brigham Young’s Strength:

The Cougars defense was nothing special in 2008. They ranked eighth in the conference in pass defense and sixth in total defense. However, all eight starters returning are seniors and there are no excuses for those numbers to be much better in 2009. Jan Jorgensen, who tallied 5.0 sacks and 8.5 tackles-for-loss, is a superb player, but he needs help from the rest of the line. BYU only averaged 1.69 sacks per game last year and it was way too easy for the opposition to double team Jorgensen. Now players like Brett Denney and Russell Tialavea have to step up and consistently get into the backfield. With Matt Bauman and Dhawn Doman returning to form a talented group in the middle of the field, the Cougars rush defense should be in good shape. It was the pass defense that was the biggest area of concern a year ago. With just about everybody who played quality minutes in the secondary returning, the unit should be much better.

Brigham Young’s Weakness:

BYU ranked sixth in the nation in passing offense and 16 th in total offense. But some of the key components that made the offense so successful are now gone. Wide receiver Austin Collie caught an incredible 106 passes for 1,538 yards and 15 touchdowns and finding another receiver who can do that will be nearly impossible. Tight end Dennis Pitta is a great pass catcher and eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark in 2008, but the Cougars need to find a new deep threat. Perhaps the bigger problem is on the offensive line where Matt Reynolds is the only returning starter. The ground game and the passing attack will be far less effective if the line cannot come together quickly and turn into a cohesive unit.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Cougars:

However, Max Hall is still a great quarterback and Harvey Unga is still a superb running back no matter how good, or bad, the line is this season. Hall threw for nearly 4,000 yards during his junior campaign and his senior season could be even better if Collie can be replaced. Unga is the workhorse on the ground and carried the ball 240 times for 1,132 yards and 11 touchdowns. He even caught 42 passes, four which resulted in touchdowns. With those two leading the way, the offense will still be dynamic and the Cougars will be in the mix for a Mountain West Conference title.

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