Buffalo Bulls 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Buffalo 2008 Record: (8-6, 5-3)
Buffalo 2008 Bowl: International Bowl vs. Connecticut (L 20-38 )
Buffalo Coach: Turner Gill (15-23 at Buffalo, 15-23 overall)
Buffalo Offensive Coordinator: Danny Barrett
Buffalo Defensive Coordinator: Fred Reed
Buffalo Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: James Starks, RB, 1,333 yards
• Passing: Zach Maynard, QB, 7 yards
• Receiving: Naaman Roosevelt, WR, 1,402 yards
• Tackles: Justin Winters, LB, 125
• Sacks: Justin Winters, LB, 2.0
• Interceptions: Domonic Cook, CB, 3

Notable Buffalo Returning Players: LB Raphael Akobundu, G Peter Bittner, CB Kendric Hawkins, WR Brett Hamlin, S Mike Newton, LB Scott Pettigrew, TE Jesse Rack, DT Dane Robinson, S Davonte Shannon, RB Brandon Thermilus, CB Josh Thomas, OT Andrew West

Buffalo Key Losses: WR Ernest Jackson, C Chris Lauzze, G Jeff Niedermier, OT Ray Norell, DE Andrae Smith, DE Mike Thompson, QB Drew Willy

The Bulls shocked the world in 2008 by winning the MAC East then upsetting undefeated Ball State to win their first conference title in school history. The Bulls’ 8-5 regular season featured a 3-1 overtime record and their conference championship win featured two long fumble returns for touchdowns from inside their own ten yard line. Furthermore, the Bulls managed to hold onto their highly acclaimed head coach, Turner Gill, in the face of a number of opportunities to move to a larger school. Luck and fate were certainly on their side during their Cinderella run.

However, 2009 is a different story. Losing triggerman Drew Willy (3300 yards, 25 TDs, only 6 picks) to the NFL is a big loss as the candidates to replace him have literally zero experience. The Bulls also only bring back two of last year’s starting O-linemen and might be forced to start some underclassmen, which can be a scary proposition. However, the news isn’t all bad. Their top two rushers return, including senior 2008 1 st team All-MAC performer James Starks (1300+ yards and 16 TDs). At receiver, the go-to guy will surely be senior Naaman Roosevelt, whose 104 catches, 1402 yards and 13 Touchdowns earned him 1 st team All-MAC honors. However, Starks needs someone to block for him and Roosevelt will need someone to throw him the ball, so I would expect both players’ production to decrease this year. Expect the Bulls’ offense to fall way back from last year’s record production of 30.3 points per game despite the presence of a pair of standout performers.

On defense, the picture is brighter. The top 8 tacklers from last year’s team return and six of the back seven are back for another run after allowing only 28.2 points per game. Expect the safety tandem of senior Mike Newton and junior Devontae Shannon to be the best in the conference after both recorded over 100 tackles last fall. In fact, the secondary looks very good for coach Gill’s squad and could be one of the MAC’s best. However, the defensive line is a big question mark. They bring back virtually no proven production and only junior Anel Montanez started a year ago. The Bulls are normally pretty good against the run by MAC standards but they seem primed to take a step back this year both against the run and on the scoreboard.

The schedule features matchups with all 6 Eastern teams, including four weeknight games to end the year. The Bulls also have the division’s toughest draw from the West, hosting Central Michigan and traveling to face Western Michigan. A six week stretch featuring five home games, including division favorites Akron and Ohio and both Western teams, will decide this team’s season. In the non-conference, trips to UTEP and UCF won’t be easy and hosting a very good Pittsburgh team that should be ranked nationally in week 2 will be a tough task as well. Overall, the Bulls have a tough schedule and lose a lot of players at key positions. I expect Buffalo to struggle along both lines and have serious trouble replacing Willy’s exceptional play at quarterback. These factors combined with extremely close nature of last year’s success lead me to believe that this is a team that is going to take a step back this year and I would be surprised to see the Bulls bowl eligible this fall.

Buffalo Big Games: Oct. 3rd vs. CMU, Oct. 17th vs. Akron, Oct. 24th @ WMU, Nov. 18th @ Miami, Nov. 27th @ Kent State

Buffalo’s Strength:

Buffalo did not move the ball particularly well, nor did the defense stop anybody that much. What the Bulls did do was keep their turnovers down and create a ton of their own. The turnovers should keep coming with the return of the back seven. Linebacker Justin Winters is a tackling machine and Raphael Akobundu and Scott Pettigrew are young linebackers who had solid campaigns. They should only be better with a year of experience. Yet, the real strength is in the secondary. Safety Mike Newton is an experienced senior and strong safety Davonte Shannon is probably the best player on the team and is ready to become a MAC superstar. Domonic Cook, Kendric Hawkins and Josh Thomas are now all upperclassmen and ready to become dominating corners. The problem is the lack of pressure by the front four. The team only generated one sack per contest in 2008 and that number could be worse with three starters gone.

Buffalo’s Weakness:

Drew Willy was the heart and soul of Buffalo. The quarterback threw for 3,304 yards and 25 touchdowns and was only intercepted six times. Zach Maynard will bring a running attack to the quarterback position, but can he be the leader that Willy was? With Naaman Roosevelt and Brett Hamlin returning, Maynard will have targets. Roosevelt caught 104 passes for 1,402 yards and 13 touchdowns. He will certainly give Maynard a viable option, but it remains to be seen if Maynard can consistently get him the ball. Making matters worse, three starters are gone off of the offensive line and guard Peter Bittner and tackle Andrew West have to quickly become leaders. The line did give quite a few sacks last year, but that should be less of an issue due to the mobility of Maynard.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Bulls:

What the offensive line did extremely well in 2008 was pave the way for James Starks. The 6-2 running back tallied 1,333 yards on the ground and made 16 romps to the end zone. Brandon Thermilus added 454 yards and seven touchdowns and those two are both back. Even if Maynard struggles with the passing attack, the ground game should be enough to carry the Bulls to another MAC title game.

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