Boston College Eagles 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Boston College 2008 Record: (9-5, 5-3 )
Boston College 2008 Bowl: Music City Bowl vs. Vanderbilt (L 14-16)
Boston College Coach: Frank Spaziani (1-0 at Boston College, 1-0 overall)
Boston College Offensive Coordinator: Gary Tranquill
Boston College Defensive Coordinator: Bill McGovern
Boston College Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Montel Harris, RB, 900 yards
• Passing: Dominique Davis, QB, 741 yards
• Receiving: Rich Gunnell, WR, 551 yards
• Tackles: Mark Herzlich, LB, 110
• Sacks: Mike McLaughlin, LB, 4.0
• Interceptions: Mark Herzlich, LB, 6

Notable Boston College Returning Players: DE Alex Albright, K Steve Aponavicius, OT Anthony Castonzo, G Thomas Claiborne, S Wes Davis, CB DeLeon Gause, RB Josh Haden, OT Rich Lapham, DE Jim Ramella, CB Roderick Rollins, C Matt Tennant

Boston College Key Losses: S Paul Anderson, DT Ron Brace, QB Chris Crane, TE Ryan Purvis, DT B.J. Raji, G Clif Ramsey, WR Brandon Robinson, LB Brian Toal

Boston College has been one of the league’s best teams since joining the ACC. With two consecutive Atlantic division titles and 30 wins in the last three seasons, only Virginia Tech has been better in league play! However, the Eagles have had difficulty keeping head coaches in place and enter this season with their 3 rd head coach in the last four seasons! Former head coach Jeff Jagodzinski was fired for interviewing for an NFL position and longtime defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani is now the man calling the shots. With so much turnover at the top and a few unfortunate losses on the field, Boston College could be at risk of missing their first bowl game in 10 years.

The offense was decent last season as the Eagles began life without former star quarterback Matt Ryan. Chris Crane and youngster Dominique Davis split time and both were up and down. However, the Eagles have to start from scratch this season once more as Crane graduated and the promising Davis was kicked off the team! There is some good news though, as four starters are back on the offensive line, led by 2nd team All-ACC tackle Anthony Costanzo. Whoever is calling the signals should have solid protection from one of the conference’s better units. The running game should also be quite good as sophomores Montel Harris and Josh Haden combined for nearly 1,500 rush yards, 33 receptions and seven total touchdowns last season! Expect a big emphasis to be placed on their production with all of the concern under center. The receiving corps should also be solid as seniors Rich Gunnell and Justin Jarvis will be the starters. Gunnell has over 1,600 career receiving yards and should be the number one target. However, I’m very concerned about the quarterback position and I definitely can see a very similar scenario playing out compared to last season. The Eagles will play a few different quarterbacks and rely heavily on their run game while never really mounting a dangerous passing attack. That means that BC’s offensive production won’t go up and this could be one of the conference’s most predictable units.

Defensively, Spaziani has fielded some excellent groups in his12 years in charge. Unfortunately, now that he’s the head coach he’ll have to evenly split his time between both sides of the ball and I’m worried that the unit could suffer for it. On top of that, 2nd team All-American linebacker Mark Herzlich was diagnosed with cancer after spring practice and he will miss the season. As Herzlich was the team’s most productive player with 109 tackles, 3 sacks and 6 interceptions and the defense’s heart and soul, he is simply irreplaceable and Boston College’s defense will suffer for it. While I expect Herzlich to be a big part of the team from an emotional standpoint as he remains a student and the prognosis for his recovery is good, he is far less effective as a cheerleader than he would be at linebacker. As for the players who will be on the field this fall, middle linebacker Mike McLaughlin will be counted upon the most to make an impact after racking up 89 tackles, 4 sacks and an interception last year. Unfortunately, McLaughlin suffered an Achilles injury during the offseason and he could be slowed entering the fall! Even without Herzlich, this should be a good group of linebackers if McLaughlin can remain healthy but all bets are off if he can’t go. Up front, senior defensive end Jim Ramella should be the leader of a solid group that has to replace two highly drafted defensive tackles in BJ Faji and Ron Brace. Both were drafted in the first two rounds! With so the loss of all of the top end talent in the front seven, I think teams will find it easier to run the football this season against the Eagles. The secondary looks to be the bright spot as three starters return from a unit which held opponents to under 180 pass yards per game. The four expected starters combined for ten interceptions last season and I think that teams will definitely try to beat the Eagles on the ground instead of through the air. Overall, I’m worried that BC will be susceptible to the run and they could really be in trouble if McLaughlin can’t return at full strength. Boston College will be weaker defensively this season.

The schedule is a bit of a saving grace. Their non-conference schedule features only one BCS level opponent, archrival Notre Dame. Their first two games are at home against weak opposition and four of their first five at home so their young quarterbacks will have a chance to get their feet wet in a familiar environment. They also have three home division games and could take advantage of seven total home games as they are 18-3 at home since joining the ACC. Overall, both losing Davis and Herzlich unexpectedly is really a big blow for the Eagles. There will be issues with inexperience at quarterback, defensive tackle and linebacker and for a team which relies upon protecting the football and playing stout defense, those are really bad losses. I haven’t even included another coaching change among the bad things that happened this offseason in Chestnut Hill! I actually had the Eagles picked to finish even worse before revising my estimate based on the expected strength of the running game. Overall, Boston College will be average on both sides of the football and will take a big step back from their excellent finishes of the past three years. However, I still think that the Eagles will keep their bowl streak alive this season, though more than seven wins seem highly unlikely.

Boston College Big Games: Sept. 19th @ Clemson, Sept. 26th vs. Wake Forest, Oct. 3rd vs. FSU, Oct. 10th @ V-Tech, Oct. 24th @ Notre Dame, Nov. 21st vs. UNC

Boston College’s Strength:

Quarterback Chris Crane was the first in line of quarterbacks who failed to live up to the legacy left behind by Matt Ryan. Crane had a great offensive line to work with and four of those players are back, led by tackle Anthony Castonzo. With a talented and experienced line, the Eagles should be able to get a solid ground game going while the passing attack adjusts to another new quarterback. Running back Montel Harris handled a majority of the carries last year and finished the campaign with 900 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Josh Haden added 479 yards on the ground and one trip to the end zone. Boston College did not have a great rushing attack last year, but that should change now that everybody has another year of experience under their belt.

Boston College’s Weakness:

B.J. Raji and Ron Brace were two of the best defensive tackles in college football last year. That is why the Eagles had the best rush defense in the Atlantic Coast Conference and ranked third in sacks. Those two will not be easy to replace and it will take a miracle for the team to do that well against the run without those two. The rest of the defense returns some decent players. Linebacker Mark Herzlich will do everything and led the team with 110 tackles and six interceptions during the 2008 campaign and even added three sacks. Between Herzlich and Mike McLaughlin, Boston College sports a talented group of linebackers. The secondary returns upperclassmen Wes Davis, Roderick Rollins and DeLeon Gause, but the absence of Paul Anderson will sting for a little while. But the back seven will struggle if the front four cannot stop the run or get pressure on the quarterback.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Golden Eagles:

Replacing Raji and Brace is important, but most eyes will be on the quarterback situation. Dominique Davis played in the last three games of the 2008 campaign after Crane went down with an injury. While that experience is nice, Davis did not blow anybody away with his abilities. That leaves the door open for redshirt freshman Justin Tuggle, who could win the starting job if he can he take care of the ball. Either way, receiver Brandon Robinson is gone and the new quarterback will look to Rich Gunnell as his main target.

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