BBVA Compass Bowl Free Pick
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Pittsburgh -155 (7-5, 5-2) versus Kentucky +135 (6-6, 2-6)
Legion Field, Birmingham AL, January 8 12:00PM ET ESPN
Pittsburgh favored by 3, over/under 52.
The Pittsburgh Panthers will face the Kentucky Wildcats in the 5th edition of the BBVA Compass Bow on Saturday.
Pitt head coach Dave Wannstedt will be coaching his final game for the Panthers after being forced to resign earlier this month as the team failed to live up to pre-season expectations as the pick to win the Big East Conference.
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Wannstedt has led the Panthers to its third straight bowl appearance after resurrecting one the most dominating programs in the Big East posting an overall record of 42-31. Then Panthers are playing in their 27th bowl game, with an all-time mark of 11-15. Their victory over North Carolina in last year’s Meineke Car Care Bowl snapped a three-game bowl-losing streak.
Meanwhile, the Wildcats first year head coach Joseph Phillips who succeeded Rich Brooks following his retirement this past off-season has led Kentucky to its fifth straight bowl appearance. The ‘Cats are 8-6 all-time in bowl appearances and had won three straight bowl games before losing to Clemson in the 2009 Music City Bowl.
Pitt is all about running. The team features two solid running backs, leading rusher, and pre-season favorite to win the Heisman Trophy Dion Lewis, and Ray Graham. Following an astounding freshman season in 2009, Lewis struggled at times, but still gained 956 rushing yards and scored 12 touchdowns. Graham was used as a change of pace and responded with 832 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging 6.4 yards per carry.
QB Tino Sunseri started slow but finished the season with 2,476 passing yards and 15 touchdown passes. His leading receiver was Jon Baldwin, who caught 52 receptions for 810 yards and five touchdowns. Mike Shanahan was second in receptions for Pittsburgh with 42 for 577 yards.
On defense, the Panthers are led by Dom DeCicco, who recorded a team best 85 tackles, and tied for the club lead with five interceptions. Max Gruder made 82 tackles on the season, while Brandon Lindsey was the biggest big-play threat for the Panthers defense, grabbing 10 quarterback sacks and 16 tackles for loss.
For the Wildcats, quarterback Mike Hartline led the offensive charge tossing for 3,158 yards and 23 touchdowns against just nine interceptions.
His favorite target Randall Cobb led the team in receptions with 79 for 955 yards. He was also second in rushing yards, gaining 401 yards at a 7.7 yard per carry clip. Derrick Locke was the leader in rushing yards with 816 and 10 touchdowns.
The Panthers are a little bit more, well-rounded than Kentucky. The Wildcat’s two wins in conference play doesn’t exactly instill a sense of confidence in their abilities, even if they do play in the SEC. Bet on Pittsburgh.
The odds makers have the Pittsburgh Panthers as a -3 point favorite with an over/under of 52.
Matt’s Free Prediction: Pittsburgh 27, Kentucky 24
Team records:
- Kentucky: 6-6 SU, 6-5 ATS
- Pittsburgh: 7-5 SU, 6-3-2 ATS
Kentucky Wildcats most recently:
- When playing in January are 1-1
- When playing on turf are 5-5
- After being outgained are 3-7
- When playing outside the conference are 9-1
Pittsburgh Panthers most recently:
- When playing in January are 0-1
- When playing on turf are 6-4
- After outgaining opponent are 5-5
- When playing outside the conference are 6-4
A few betting trends to consider:
- Kentucky is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
- Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
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