Arkansas State Red Wolves 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Arkansas State 2008 Record: (6-6, 4-3)
Arkansas State 2008 Bowl: none
Arkansas State Coach: Steve Roberts (37-47 at Arkansas State, 86-70-1 overall)
Arkansas State Offensive Coordinator: Doug Ruse
Arkansas State Defensive Coordinator: Kevin Corless
Arkansas State Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Reggie Arnold, RB, 1,074 yards
• Passing: Corey Leonard, QB, 2,347 yards
• Receiving: Brandon Thompkins, WR, 511 yards
• Tackles: M.D. Jennings, S, 67
• Sacks: Alex Carrington, DE, 10.5
• Interceptions: M.D. Jennings, S, 3

Notable Arkansas State Returning Players: K Josh Aracuo, S Marcus Brown, LB Darius Glover, DT Bryan Hall, G Drew Hilton, RB Derek Lawson, DT Khari Mays, LB Javon McKinnon, WR Jahbari McLennan, WR Jarriel Norman, G Dominic Padrta, S Evan Van Dolah, CB Daylan Walker

Arkansas State Key Losses: C Brandon Ciaramitaro, OT Mark Clemsons, DE Brian Flagg, TE David Johnson, OT Matt Mandich, LB Ben Owens, CB Dominique Williams

2008 was a solid year for the Red Wolves as they earned their 3 rd winning conference record in four years and finished the year bowl eligible with a 6-6 mark. The highlight of the year was undoubtedly their upset of Texas A&M to start the season and despite missing out on a bowl berth it was one of coach Steve Roberts’ most successful years in Jonesboro.

The offense looks primed to continue the success of 2008, where Arky State scored a Roberts era best 27 points per game. Six senior returning starters will take the field, led by quarterback Corey Leonard, who produced over 2,500 total yards and 20 touchdowns last year. His top three targets are all seniors as well and will be counted on to produce this season. Tailback Reggie Arnold, another senior, is also back after running for nearly 1,100 yards and 7 touchdowns, earning him a 1 st team All-Sun Belt berth. The only major question is the offensive line, which only returns two starters from a year ago. Even worse, they have the least number of career starts in all of college football! In short, it might be tough to give their exceptionally experienced skill players the room that they enjoyed last fall. I think that Arky State’s offense will probably be slightly less effective this year due to some early growing pains.

The defense looks very good after allowing less than 24 points per game last season. Eight starters return from that group and as many as seven seniors could contribute in a starting role. Senior Alex Carrington, the 2008 Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year thanks to his 53 tackles and 10.5 sacks, will lead an experienced defensive line that might be the best in the league. With the return of two starters at linebacker, I expect the Red Wolves to be very solid against the run, much like their stellar 2008 performance of allowing only 125 yards per game. In the secondary, junior MD Jennings is the team’s leading returning tackler and also had 3 interceptions last fall. He is one of three returning starters and the Red Wolves could have a very strong pass defense this season. Overall, this was the conference’s best defense last season and I would be surprised to see any regression this fall.

Outside of my concern about the offensive line, ASU’s schedule is the primary culprit for Arkansas State’s predicted 3 rd place finish. They have only 5 home games, travel to Nebraska, Louisville and Iowa in the non-conference schedule and finish with four of their last 6 games on the road! They also have two away weeknight games in the conference slate. The good news is that they host both Troy and North Texas and are probably the biggest wild card in the entire conference. If their offensive line can find its bearings quickly then you could see Arkansas State compete for the Sun Belt title. At the very least, this team should be able to overcome their tough schedule to finish bowl eligible.

Arkansas State Big Games: Sept. 26th vs. Troy, Oct. 13th @ UL-Monroe, Nov. 14th @ FAU, Nov. 28th vs. North Texas

Arkansas State’s Strength:

The good news is that most of those less experienced offensive linemen are upperclassmen who have at least seen some playing time. The better news is quarterback Corey Leonard and running back Reggie Arnold are back. Leonard did not put up huge numbers during his junior campaign, but he did throw twice as many touchdowns as interceptions and completed over 54 percent of his passes. Leonard’s ability to scramble and make plays with his legs is what turns him from an average quarterback into a game changer. With Brandon Thompkins and Jahbari McLennan, the top two receivers from a year ago, returning, the passing attack should be in good shape. The ground game is in even better shape thanks to Arnold and backup Derek Lawson. Arnold will be the go-to-guy after tallying 1,074 yards and seven scores on the ground in 2008, but Lawson is an explosive rusher who had a superb freshman campaign.

Arkansas State’s Weakness:

The Red Wolves defense was solid last year, but there are some big holes to fill. Linebacker Ben Owens was easily the team’s best tackler and cornerback Dominique Williams was a solid number one cornerback who could shut down the opposition’s top receiver. But the defense will still be good, mostly due to the return of Alex Carrington who tallied 10.5 sacks and 19.0 tackles-for-loss from his defensive end position. Fellow end Brian Flagg was not nearly as productive, but now he is gone and Arkansas State will have to find a new end opposite of Carrington or he will be double teamed on every play. Without Owens the linebackers should be alright with the return of Darius Glover and Javon McKinnon, but it remains to be seen if Greg Hardy can effectively replace Owens in the middle of the field.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Red Wolves:

The secondary has a ton of potential if somebody can replace Williams. Cordarious Mingo and Daylan Walker are both seniors and are the probable starting corners and they should get some help from returning safeties M.D. Jennings and Evan Van Dolah. Coach Steve Roberts got the most out of his team in 2008, but statistically speaking the Red Wolves should have done better than a 4-3 conference record. If the offensive line can replace their lost starters, this team should be in the mix for a conference title.

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