Arizona State Sun Devils 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Arizona State 2008 Record: (5-7, 4-5)
Arizona State 2008 Bowl: none
Arizona State Coach: Dennis Erickson (15-9 at Arizona, 163-75-1 overall)
Arizona State Offensive Coordinator: Rich Olson
Arizona State Defensive Coordinator: Craig Bray
Arizona State Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Dimitri Nance, RB, 410 yards
• Passing: Danny Sullivan, QB, 151 yards
• Receiving: Chris McGaha, WR, 501 yards
• Tackles: Mike Nixon, LB, 90
• Sacks: Dexter Davis, DE, 11.0
• Interceptions: Mike Nixon, LB, 5

Notable Arizona State Returning Players: C Thomas Altieri, CB Omar Bolden, CB Terell Carr, G Garth Gerhart, LB Travis Goethel, DT Lawrence Guy, OT Jon Hargis, OT Shawn Lauvao, WR Kerry Taylor, K/P Thomas Weber

Arizona State Key Losses: QB Rudy Carpenter, S Rodney Cox, G Paul Fanaika, WR Michael Jones, S Troy Nolan, TE Andrew Pettes, DT David Smith, DE Luis Vasquez, LB Morris Wooten

Hopes were sky high entering 2008 for the Arizona State faithful. Coming off of a 10-3 season in head coach Dennis Erickson’s first year, many people believed that the Sun Devils could compete for the league title. However, a shocking home loss to UNLV kick-started a six game losing streak and even a late season recovery against the league’s worst teams wasn’t enough to save a bowl berth. The Sun Devils’ 5-7 record shouldn’t have come as a surprise to most people as their 2007 season featured losses in all of the games that they played against ranked opponents. 2009 will be a very telling season for Erickson, who needs an offensive turnaround to keep momentum with his program.

The Sun Devils return seven starters from an offense than put up less than 23 points per game last year and regressed by nearly 10 points per game from their excellent 2007 season. ASU has to replace a three year starter at quarterback who was the school’s 2 nd leading passer all time, so there will undoubtedly be a little bit of drop off. A three way battle is expected to take place, with senior Daniel Sullivan appearing to have a slight edge going into the fall. The receivers should help make the new QB’s life easier as seniors Chris McGaha and Kyle Williams are solid options. McGaha had over 1,000 yards two years ago and should be the top target. The offensive line should also be decent as four starters return from 2008. The Sun Devils gave up 20 less sacks last season and I think that a much more experienced line will provide solid pass protection. The biggest problem on offense last season was that ASU averaged less than 90 yards per game on the ground. However, three of the top four starters from last season return and former super recruit Ryan Bass was the star of the spring game. Expect the ubertalented sophomore to be the starter this season. Overall, the big question is whether ASU can get decent quarterback play this fall and I think that the running game will have to be a priority for the Sun Devils to score a lot of points.

Defensively, the ASU was surprisingly solid last season. In fact, the defense performed very well against some elite opposition and certainly can’t take the blame for the team’s disappointing season. The defensive line will be led by senior end Dexter Davis, who was a 1st team All-Pac Ten choice after racking up 11 sacks last season. With influx of young talent led by sophomore tackle Lawrence Guy, who was a freshman All-American last fall, Arizona State’s future looks very bright on the line and I expect a solid group to emerge once more this fall. I also expect a strong run defense because ASU has a very good set of linebackers. Seniors Travis Goethel and Mike Nixon combined for 161 tackles and seven interceptions last season and are two of the most athletic ‘backers in the league. I think that they’ll be even better this season as Erickson won the battle for highly touted freshman Vontaze Burfict and he is expected to play immediately at the middle linebacker spot. Arizona State’s linebackers should be excellent this year and I like the Sun Devils’ run defense to be improved. The secondary also should be strong as both starting cornerbacks return and I think that ASU will field a solid pass defense this fall. Overall, Arizona State had a surprisingly decent defense last year and I think that they’re even more talented this season. Expect another strong effort from the defense in 2009.

The schedule is not going to be easy for the Sun Devils though they do have five conference home games. Favorites USC, Cal and Oregon State all come to Tempe so ASU will have to be road warriors this season if they want to make some noise. To make matters worse, the Sun Devils have to play Oregon, Cal and USC in consecutive weeks! On top of all that, they have to travel to Georgia outside of conference play! The only good news is that they host rival Arizona and should finish with no worse than a 2-1 non-conference mark.

Overall, I think that the Sun Devils’ best chance at a bowl game is to establish a strong running attack and play good defense. However, expecting the high-flying Erickson to go conservative seems unlikely. On the other hand, this is an odd Erickson team because the defense is far superior to the offense and perhaps that juxtaposition will force his hand into playing a much more reserved style of football. Despite the strong defense I think that Arizona State will have trouble scoring points with a new quarterback in charge and their difficult schedule leads me to believe that a 6-6 season is going to be a tough task. The Sun Devils’ offense will need to exceed expectations for ASU to earn a bowl berth.

Arizona State Big Games: Sept. 26th @ Georgia, Oct. 3rd vs. Oregon St, Oct. 17th vs. UW, Oct. 31st vs. Cal, Nov. 7th vs. USC, Nov, 14th @ Oregon, Nov. 28th vs. Arizona

Arizona State’s Strength:

Much of the blame for last year’s debacle can be placed on the offense and any success the team finds this time around will be because of the defense. There is talent all over that side of the ball and none may be better than Dexter Davis. The senior defensive end tallied 11.0 sacks and 15.0 tackles-for-loss last season and is expected to have a huge final season in Tempe. With Lawrence Guy also returning to the defensive line, the Sun Devils front four should be one of the best in the conference. The group in the middle is equally talented with the return of linebackers Mike Nixon and Travis Goethel, who ranked first and third, respectively, on the team in tackles. The secondary will miss free safety Troy Nolan, but corners Omar Bolden and Terrell Carr are now both experienced upperclassmen.

Arizona State’s Weakness:

Somehow Arizona State ranked 100th in the nation in total offense. That was on a team with a four year starting quarterback in Rudy Carpenter, a talented tailback in Keegan Herring and a superb playmaker in Michael Jones. Those three are now gone and it still seems the offense can only be better after a miserable 2008 campaign. However, at least on paper, the offense could be worse. Dimitri Nance is a capable rusher and Danny Sullivan is certainly a capable quarterback, but if Carpenter and Herring could not get the job done, why should anyone expect more from Nance and Sullivan? The good news is that Sullivan, a strong armed senior, will have some playmakers down field. Chris McGaha can pick up where Jones left off and Kerry Taylor showed plenty of promise as a sophomore last season.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Sun Devils:

What Sullivan will have that Carpenter did not is an experienced offensive line. Four starters are back, led by tackle Shawn Lauvao. If the line can give Sullivan time and create holes for Nance and fellow back Shaun DeWitty, then the offense will not rank 100th in the nation once again. But that might be putting a little too much emphasis on experience. This is an offensive line that gave up nearly three sacks per game during the 2008 campaign and paved the way for an absolutely awful ground game.

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