Alabama Crimson Tide 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Alabama 2008 Record: (12-2, 8-0)
Alabama 2008 Bowl: Sugar Bowl vs. Utah (L 17-31)
Alabama Coach: Nick Saban (19-8 at Alabama, 110-43-1 overall)
Alabama Offensive Coordinator: Jim McElwain
Alabama Defensive Coordinator: Kirby Smart
Alabama Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Mark Ingram, RB, 728 yards
• Passing: Greg McElroy, QB, 123 yards
• Receiving: Julio Jones, WR, 924 yards
• Tackles: Rolando McClain, LB, 95
• Sacks: Brandon Deaderick, DE, 4.0
• Interceptions: Justin Woodall, S, 4

Notable Alabama Returning Players: CB Javier Arenas, DT Terrence Cody, Brandon Fanney, LB Don’t’a Hightower, CB Kareem Jackson, LB Cory Reamer, K Leigh Tiffin

Alabama Key Losses: C Antoine Caldwell, RB Glen Coffee, G Marlon Davis, DE Bobby Greenwood, S Rashad Johnson, TE Travis McCall, QB John Parker Wilson, OT Andre Smith, TE Nick Walker

2008 was a huge turnaround for the Crimson Tide. Alabama opened up their season with a blowout win over preseason top 10 Clemson in the Georgia Dome and finished the regular season 12-0! Their return trip to the Georgia Dome wasn’t as kind as eventual National Champion Florida ended their unbeaten run in the SEC Title Game and a shocking loss to Utah in the Sugar Bowl ended the year on a sobering note. On the flip side, there is no doubt that last year was the most successful for Alabama in over a decade. With expectations at an all-time high throughout the SEC’s most fanatical supporters, can Saban rebuild his offense quickly enough to compete for the SEC West once more?

‘Who’s on offense?’ is the big question this fall in Tuscaloosa. Alabama has to replace three starters on the offensive line, their starting tailback and their starting quarterback. Last season’s starting quarterback was Tuscaloosa native John Parker Wilson, who threw for over 2,200 yards and 10 touchdowns against only 8 interceptions. I wouldn’t lament his loss for too long if I’m an Alabama fan because he was more of a caretaker quarterback than a playmaker. The new starting quarterback will be junior Greg McElroy, who pulled away from the competition during camp. McElroy played behind Mizzou’s former star quarterback Chase Daniel in high school, so Tide fans are optimistic that he knows how to step into the spotlight with ease. What will really make McElroy’s life easy is the presence of sophomore superstar receiver Julio Jones, who had 58 catches for 924 yards and 4 touchdowns last fall as a true freshman despite being Alabama’s only real receiving threat. I expect the Tide to improve their passing game from last year and Jones will be at the center of that progress.

The Tide had an absolutely dominant O-Line last fall but we saw what life was like without NFL top 10 pick Andre Smith when he was suspended for the Sugar Bowl and Alabama couldn’t run the football to save their life. Simply put, Saban has recruited exceptionally well in the past two years but Alabama has to replace two 1st team All-American linemen and that means their O-Line won’t be nearly the force it was in 2008. However, I still think that there is enough talent to take care of McElroy and open up some holes for the running game. That’s good news for sophomore Mark Ingram, who ran for 725 yards and 12 touchdowns last season and is expected to see the majority of carries this season. Along with talented senior Roy Upchurch, I expect another solid running game. I think that Alabama will be much more difficult to prepare for this season compared to 2008 when they scored early and often and then ran the football for 3 quarters to sit on their lead. Expect a much stronger passing attack and a more productive offense in 2009 but keep an eye on their rebuilt line early.

Defensively, the Tide finished 2008 as the 2nd ranked scoring defense in the SEC and nine starters are back this fall. It all begins up front, where Alabama’s defensive line is one of the best in the country. Senior Terrance Cody is one of the biggest players in the country and commands a double or triple team nearly every play! In Bama’s 3-4 defense, that’s a huge advantage as it frees up their linebackers to make a ton of plays. There is so much depth alongside Cody up front and I expect a strong run defense. Another reason for optimism is that all four starting linebackers are back, led by 3 rd team All-American junior Rolando McClain, who made 95 tackles last season. Alabama will be very tough to run the football against this year.

The secondary is also going to be very good despite losing 2 nd team All-American safety Rashad Johnson. 2nd team All-SEC cornerback Javier Arenas is one of the best in the conference and senior safety Justin Woodall made 47 tackles while snagging 4 interceptions in 2008, so there is still plenty of star power. There’s even more depth as all of last season’s backups return and I expect another big season from this group. As good as this defense was a year ago, I actually expect that it will be even better this fall.

The schedule is going to be very interesting. Alabama opens up in Atlanta against Virginia Tech and both teams will likely be ranked in the top ten. If Alabama wants to make another run at a championship season, they have a great opportunity to make a statement on national television. The Tide also has a really favorable draw from the SEC East, avoiding both Georgia and Florida! They also host rivals LSU, Arkansas and Tennessee! The only daunting road games come against Ole Miss and Auburn in the Iron Bowl (and that’s only because Auburn is their archrival)! Thus, it is safe to say that the schedule is fairly favorable for the Tide.

After a six win improvement last fall, some may wonder if the Tide is going to come back to earth this season. However, I’m not one of them. I see one of the conference’s top two defenses and a strong running game similar to last year’s unit. The difference is that I think that McElroy will be more of a playmaker than Wilson and a stronger offense means that Alabama won’t have to endure unnecessarily close games against the likes of Kentucky and Tulane this fall. Furthermore, they have a favorable conference schedule and if they can repeat last season’s 7-0 home record then they could find themselves in the SEC Title Game for the second consecutive season. However, I’m picking the Tide to tie for the SEC West title and lose out on a return trip to Atlanta thanks to a tiebreaker victory for Ole Miss on Oct. 10 th in Oxford. Despite the fact that I don’t expect the Tide to play for the SEC Title, I can’t see them winning less than 9 games. If the ball bounces their way, Alabama could once more be a big part of the National Title chase.

Alabama Big Games: Sept. 5th vs. Virginia Tech (Atlanta), Sept. 26th vs. Arkansas, Oct. 10th @ Mississippi, Oct. 24th vs. Tennessee, Nov. 7th vs. LSU, Nov. 27th @ Auburn

Alabama’s Strength:

But the defense is in good shape. Nine starters are back and Coach Saban continues to bring in great recruits who could make a huge impact. Nose guard Terrence Cody and end Brandon Deaderick will anchor the front line, but somebody needs to get to the quarterback more efficiently. The now departed Bobby Greenwood led the team in sacks and he only had five on the season. The linebacker corps will be one of the best in the nation led by Rolando McClain and Don’t’a Hightower. Starters Brandon Fanney and Cory Reamer also return, but keep an eye on freshman Nico Johnson who could emerge as a dynamic playmaker sooner or later. The secondary has one big question to answer after losing leader Rashad Johnson. The free safety led the team in interceptions and pass break-ups and ranked second in tackles. With Javier Arenas, Kareem Jackson, Marquis Johnson and Justin Woodall all returning, the secondary has plenty of experience, but do they have a leader?

Alabama’s Weakness:

Alabama was never that impressive on offense, but quarterback John Parker Wilson was a steady signal caller who did what he needed to do in order to win games. Now he is gone and the job will likely fall to junior Greg McElroy. McElroy lacks the experience, but he is expected to continue the ball-control tradition that has recently been implanted in Tuscaloosa. Yet, McElroy has a few more receiving options than Parker Wilson did last season. Julio Jones is now a sophomore and should be used in more ways than he was as a freshman and Mike McCoy is ready for a breakout season. But more experienced receivers will not do McElroy any good if the offensive line cannot give him any time to throw. Tackle Andre Smith was one of the best in the nation and center Antoine Caldwell will be missed nearly as much. McElroy will also need running back Mark Ingram to stay healthy and freshman Trent Richardson to be as good as everybody thinks he will be.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Crimson Tide:

It might take some time for the offense to show signs of life, but Alabama hopes it does not take too long. If McElroy can manage the clock and get the ball to the playmakers and the offensive line can turn the running game into something at least halfway decent, Alabama can win the SEC West. The defense is that good and that deep. Do not expect a lot of high scoring games out of the Crimson Tide this season, but at some point the offense will have to make a difference and that is when Alabama will lose a game or two.

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