NCAA Basketball Free Pick – Friday, March 11, 2011
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Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Florida State Seminoles
Friday, March 11, 2011 at 9:00 PM EST on ESPN2
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The No.6 seed Virginia Tech Hokies will look to cement a spot in next week’s NCCA Tournament with a win over the No.3 seed Florida St. Seminoles in the final game of tonight’s ACC quarterfinals at the Greensboro Coliseum. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN2.
Virginia Tech is often seen as the perennial bubble team that has ends up on the wrong side of the tournament draw more times than it cares to remember. The Hokies are hoping that Thursday’s opening round 59-43 victory over No.11 seed Georgia Tech as a four-point favorite is a step in the right direction. They also know that a win in this one would tip the scales heavily in their favor.
Tech’s regular season resume is solid with an overall record of 20-10 straight-up (12-12-2 against the spread) and a 9-7 SU record in conference play including a 64-60 win over Duke on Feb.26 as a four-point home underdog and a 71-59 victory over the Seminoles as a 3 ½-point home favorite in early January.
The Hokies will look to senior guard Malcolm Delaney and senior forward Jeff Allen to come up big tonight after combining for 29 points in the win over the Yellow Jackets. Delaney has led the team in scoring this season with 18.6 points a game and Allen is second in scoring with 13.8 points and has a team-high 10.1 rebounds a game.
Florida State earned a bye for the first round by virtue of finishing third in the ACC with a record of 11-5 SU. The Seminoles has an overall record of 21-9 SU and are 13-10-2 ATS. Since January’s loss to the Hokies, they compiled a record of 10-4 SU including a 66-61 win over the Blue Devils as a seven-point home underdog in their following game.
Senior guard Derwin Kitchen has been the primary scorer for Florida State ever since junior forward Chris Singleton broke his foot in mid-February. He is averaging 10.1 points and a team-high 3.6 assists a game while another junior forward, Benard James has stepped up his game in Singleton’s absence.
The Seminoles are averaging 70 points a game but have struggled to maintain their 39 rebounds a game after Singleton went down. In the final game of the regular season against NC State, Kitchen came up big with 17 points and 13 rebounds in a 62-52 victory as a one-point road favorite.
Virginia Tech is 2-3-1 ATS in its last six games and the total has stayed ‘under’ in four of its last six games. Florida State is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five games and the total has stayed ‘under’ in four of its last six games.
Head-to-head, the recent history in this series has favored Florida State until the Hokies’ win this year. The Seminoles have won the three previous meetings SU and are 2-1 ATS. The total has stayed ‘under’ in three of the last four meetings.
The Seminoles should opened as -1.5 favorite this time around in what should be a good, close battle until the end. Stick with the Seminoles to add to Virginia Tech’s anxiety come ‘Selection Sunday’ with a hard-fought win.
The Pick: Florida State 68-65
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The odds makers have the Florida State Seminoles as a -1.5 point favorite with an over/under of 128.5.
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