NCAA Basketball Free Pick – Saturday, January 8, 2011
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(8) Connecticut (11-2, 1-2) at (12) Texas (12-2, 0-0)
Saturday, January 8, 2011 at 3:30 PM EST on ESPN
Spread: Texas -7.5
The 12th ranked Longhorns will try to extend their streak of 27 straight non-conference home wins when they play host in non-conference series with the Connecticut Huskies this Saturday at the Frank Erwin Special Events Center in Austin, Texas.
This will be a good test for Texas who is 2-1 against AP Top 25 teams, and comes into the contest riding a six-game winning streak and hopes of making a deep NCAA tournament run having already beaten Michigan State, North Carolina and Arkansas for a second consecutive season. However, a victory over the eighth-ranked Huskies would go a long way in building team confidence just ahead of Big 12 play.
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Last year, the Huskies beat the Longhorns 88-74, outscoring Texas 54-32 in the final 20 minutes. That loss sent the Horns into a tailspin as they fell from the No. 1 spot in the AP Poll to an eventual first-round NCAA tournament loss to Wake Forest as the No. 8 seed.
Meanwhile, Connecticut is trying to avoid consecutive losses after having won 10 straight until losing to Pitt and then falling to the 14th-ranked Irish 73-70 in their last outing following a 66-61 win over USF two weeks ago.
UConn’s Kemba Walker, the NCAA’s leading scorer had his streak of 11 straight games with at least 20 points snapped, finishing 8-23 for a team-high 19 points. The starting frontcourt of Roscoe Smith, Alex Oriakhi, and Charles Okwandu combined for just 13 points, with Oriakhi – who averages 10.5 points and 8.4 rebounds – going scoreless in 23 minutes before fouling out.
Walker leads Division I players in scoring at 26.1 points per game and had 19 in a supporting role in last season’s Huskies’ victory. Nevertheless, he will need more help from his frontcourt if the team is to be successful against an improved Longhorns squad that seems to be hitting on all cylinders coming into Saturday’s contest.
For Texas, Gary Johnson is one of four players averaging in double figures at 11.8 points, but underclassmen have been Texas’ primary scorers. Sophomore swingman Jordan Hamilton averages a team-high 19.6 points, and freshman forward Tristan Thompson has contributed 12.1 points and 8.0 rebounds per game. Hamilton enters the weekend on a roll, and seems to be scoring at will from anywhere on the court.
The Huskies have had some problems on defense and it will be a test of the defensive intensity of the UConn perimeter defenders to stop Hamilton from getting good looks at the basket from the outside.
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Meanwhile, senior guard Dogus Balbay will lead the challenge of trying to slow down UConn’s Walker in this one.
Uconn leads the series 4-2 all-time.
I expect the Longhorns to find a way to pick apart the Husky defense, finding enough holes to edge out the win.
The odds makers have the Texas Longhorns as a -7.5 point favorite in this matchup.
Free Pick: Texas 76, UConn 74
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UConn Betting Trends
- Connecticut is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Connecticut’s last 6 games on the road
Texas Betting Trends
- Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
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