NCAA Basketball Free Pick – Friday, February 18, 2011
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#12 Connecticut (20-5, 8-5 Big East) at #16 Louisville (19-7, 8-5 Big East)
Date/Time: Friday, February 18, 2011, 9:00PM EST
Venue: KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, KY
Broadcast: ESPN
Money Line: UConn +155 / Louisville -175
Spread: Louisville -3 ½
Over/Under: 138
Kemba Walker will try to lead his twelfth-ranked Huskies over host Louisville in a Big East rematch–one if the of the junior guard’s worst performances of the season–on Friday night.
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Walker missed a 3-pointer in the waning seconds as UConn fell to Louisville 79-78 in double-overtime at home back on Jan. 29. Walker shot seven of 23 and had 20 points and four assists in the loss. The Cardinals inside zone was too much for eh Huskies forcing them to the outside resulting in game-high 30 attempts from long range with only eight finding their way to the scoreboard. UConn finished the contest shooting a miserable 37.7 percent from the floor.
Walker has since bounced back averaging 26.5 points, 8.5 assists and 6.5 boards in the last two games, finishing with 31, 10, and seven in a 78-70 home victory over No. 9 Georgetown on Wednesday. One big plus for Connecticut was the 54 percent shooting. This crushed their season average of 43 percent.
The Huskies improved to 8-5 in conference play, good enough for 4th place in the Big East, and are now 8-5 against the RPI Top 50, winning three of their last five games.
Meanwhile, Louisville is a perfect 6-0 at home in Big East play, and will be looking to bounce back from a 63-54 loss at Cincinnati on Wednesday. The Cardinals lost this game by more than expected and lost this game because Cincinnati controlled free throw shooting and also won three- point shooting.
Forward Terrence Jennings was the only player to reach double figures Wednesday with 14 points, as the Cardinals was four for 17 on 3-pointers after making 53 over its previous six games. Kyle Kuric helped out with a game-high eight rebounds.
The Cardinals have now lost three of their last five games and find themselves now 6th in the Big East. The loss also drops the team’s record against RPI Top 100 teams to 9-6.
Last year, the Huskies put up a record of 0-2 on the Cardinals, losing by an average margin of seven points. In four years, Connecticut has a record of 2-5 against Louisville as the Cardinals have won the last three meetings to even the series at five-apiece.
The odds makers have the Louisville Cardinals as a -3.5 point favorite with an over/under of 138.
Matt’s Free Pick: Louisville –The first meeting between the teams never would have gotten to two overtimes if one of the schools could convert better than 63 percent from the line. The Cardinals finished that game 11 of 20 from the free-throw line, while Connecticut went 12 of 19. Free throw shooting wins this one.
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Connecticut Huskies Betting Trends:
- Connecticut is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Connecticut’s last 8 games on the road
Louisville Cardinals Betting Trends:
- Louisville is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
- Louisville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Louisville’s last 7 games at home
- Louisville is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Connecticut
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