Texas vs North Carolina | Predictions

NCAA Basketball Free Pick – Saturday, December 18, 2010

vs.

Texas Longhorns (8-2) at North Carolina Tar Heels (7-3)
Saturday, December 18, 2010  at 4:00 PM EST on CBS

Last meeting: Texas beat UNC on a neutral site last year 103-90

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Texas is off to a pretty good start.  They beat a very good Illinois team and only lost to Top 25 Pittsburgh by a couple of points.  Their loss to USC was not a shock to me but I thought the game would be closer.  What was evident in that game is how much Texas lost upfront from last year that hasn’t been adequately replaced.  The combination of Alex Stepheson and Nikola Vucevic dominated them with 38 points and 20 rebounds.  If they let the UNC frontline do the same then the same result may occur again.  However, the Tar Heels bigs are not nearly as consistent as the Trojans post players.  This team has a great collection of guard and wing talent and wants to run.  UNC will probably oblige but whoever wins in the paint should win the game.

Beating Kentucky last weekend was critical to the pysche of the team.  They have three losses, all to good teams but what has been more troubling is how shaky they have looked in their wins, letting teams like Long Beach State, College of Charleston and and Lipscomb stay in the game.  That kind of inconsistency is reflected in their individual play as well.  Frosh Harrison Barnes has had as many brutal games as he has had good ones and his matchup with Jordan Hamilton is one to watch.  As described earlier the play of the bigs, Tyler Zeller and John Henson will be critical.  Both are a bit soft but if they can clean up on the glass and ignite the break than UNC should be able to win at home in a close contest.

The current line on this one is UNC -2.  This is a good spot to back the Tar Heels.

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Prediction:  This should be a very entertaining game that goes back and forth.  I like the Tar Heels at home and with better length inside.

Score:  North Carolina 87 – Texas 82

Texas Longhorns Betting Trends

• Longhorns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.
• Longhorns are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games overall.
• Longhorns are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Trends

• Tar Heels are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss.
• Tar Heels are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Tar Heels are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.