NCAA Basketball Free Pick – Tuesday, February 1, 2011
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#12 Purdue (18-4, 7-2 Big Ten) at #15 Wisconsin (15-5, 5-3 Big Ten)
Tuesday, February 1, 2011 at 7:00 PM EST on ESPN
Money Line: Purdue +180 / Wisconsin -220
Spread: Wisconsin -5
Over/Under: 123
Can Purdue overcome its lack of depth as the travel to the Dairy State to take on the Wisconsin Badgers in a Big Ten tilt on Tuesday night at the Kohl Center.
The Boilermakers bench only goes two deep on a good night, but those two players might be the Big Ten’s best players, as JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore are both All Big Ten candidates this year.
Moore is averaging 17.5 points per game on the season, while Johnson is setting the pace for Purdue with 20.8 points per game. The duo usually combine for over half of the team’s scoring, as the Boilermakers as a whole are only averaging 74.4 points per game. However, there are a few others that can contribute including Lewis Jackson and Ryne Smith, both who liketo put up points from the perimeter.
Check out the latest College Basketball Odds here.
The two made a real difference on Saturday against the Minnesota Golden Gophers as the 13 points for Jackson helped lift Purdue, who beat Minnesota by winning the three pointers battle and also beating them at offensive rebounding. The Boilermakers got 30 points from three-point range compared to nine for Minnesota. Johnson put up the most points for the Boilermakers with 24 points in 40 minutes shooting 61 percent from the floor. Jackson also added five big assists.
Purdue also plays smart defense, holding teams to just 60.7 points per game, ranking No. 26 in the nation. This squad has struggled on the road though, conceding at least 68 in four straight, including 87 against Ohio State last week in their biggest loss of the season.
Meanwhile, the Badgers really don’t have all that much depth either and it showed on Saturday as the Boilermakers’ bench only accounted for one assist and two boards in 26 minutes as they were upset by the Penn State Nittany Lions, 56-52. The Boilermakers were up at halftime 29-20, but the team could not close, and Penn State walked away with it. The rest of the Badgers points came from its starting five.
Wisconsin’s bench usually goes three deep, but between Jordan Taylor, Jon Leuer, and Keaton Nankivil, they are scoring over two thirds of the points on the average night. Wisconsin does however shoot well from the free throw line. They rank No. 1 in the country at 81.8 percent.
Just like Purdue, the Badgers also play some solid defense. They are allowing just 56.0 points per game, and if not for a three-point field goal defense that ranks a miserable No. 201, perhaps they would have the No. 1 scoring ‘D’ in the country, and not one that ranks No. 3.
Matt’s Free Pick: Wisconsin – Purdue and Wisconsin are close together in the conference, holding down the 2nd and 3rd spots respectively so this should be a close game with Wisconsin edging out a win as the “Grateful Red” rock the Kohl Center.
The odds makers have the Wisconsin Badgers as a -5 point favorite with an over/under of 123.
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Purdue Boilermakers Betting Trends:
- Purdue is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Purdue’s last 6 games on the road
- Purdue is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Wisconsin
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Purdue’s last 7 games when playing on the road against Wisconsin
Wisconsin Badgers Betting Trends:
- Wisconsin is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
- Wisconsin is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
- Wisconsin is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Purdue
- Wisconsin is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Purdue
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