NCAA Basketball Free Pick – Thursday, January 6, 2011
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Northwestern (9-0, 0-2) at No. 20 Illinois (12-3, 2-0)
Date/Time: Thursday, January 6, 9:00PM EST on ESPN 2
Spread: OFF
Over/Under: OFF
The Northwestern Wildcats will attempt to grab their first conference win on Thursday when they tip off against the No. 20 Fighting Illini in a Big Ten bout at Assembly Hall in Champaign, IL.
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Last season, the Wildcats went 1-1 against the Fighting Illini with their last meeting on Jan 23, 2010, ending in a 73-68 win for the ‘Cats. John Shurna scored 19 points and Drew Crawford scored 15, as Northwestern went on a run late in the second half to beat Illinois snapping an 11 game losing streak against their conference rival.
The Wildcats are coming off a disappointing 65-62 loss to No. 18 Michigan after Michael Thompson’s 12 points, nine in a late 12-0 run, helped the Wildcats chop a 13-point deficit down to a single point with 28 seconds left.
Northwestern’s Shurna, the Big Ten’s leading scorer at 22.2 points who has been bothered by a sore ankle, was just 1-for-11 shooting and missed four of his five 3-point attempts while scoring 11 points. Crawford led the Wildcats with 17 points.
Meanwhile, the Illini held off Wisconsin 69-61 as Illinois guard Demetri McCamey scored 21 points, including making all 11 of his free throw attempts. He had 12 points over the game’s final seven minutes that slowly buried the Badgers. Mike Davis and another senior, Bill Cole, added 11 points each for the Illini. Davis had 14 rebounds to help them outrebound Wisconsin 34-25, while the Illini outshot their opponents 66.7 to 42.9 percent for the game. Davis led the Big Ten in rebounding last year with 9.2 per game. Entering the week, Illinois’ senior forward ranked just 10th on the league’s rebounding list this year.
Northwestern doesn’t have much margin for error in this one, and with Shurna at less than 100 percent, it won’t get any easier. Illinois is a top 25 team, and Northwestern has a record of 0-2 against ranked teams.
Taking a look at this season performance, Illinois comes out ahead in two categories. The Fighting Illini is stronger than the Wildcats when it comes to defense. They have an advantage in blocked shots, and leads in rebounding, 35 per game to 31 per game.
However, turnovers are a strength for the Wildcats over the Fighting Illini, with only 10 to their 13 per game.
Over the last four seasons, Northwestern is 1-5 against Illinois, including 0-3 at Assembly Hall.
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If the Wildcats can stay in it early on, forcing turnovers, they may get a few breaks in the second half to keep this one close. However, my guess is that Illinois opens up this one with its perimeter shooting that’s hitting at nearly a 45 percent clip.
Free Pick: Illinois 76, Northwestern 65
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