NCAA Basketball Free Pick – Tuesday, December 28, 2010
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No 19 North Carolina (8-4, 0-0 ACC) at Rutgers (9-2, 0-0 Big East)
Tuesday, December 28, 9:00PM EST on ESPN 2
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Spread: North Carolina -8
Over/Under: OFF
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights will attempt to notch its seventh straight victory when they tip off against ACC foe No. 19 North Carolina on Tuesday evening at Madison Square Garden.
This contest marks the 13th all-time meeting between Rutgers and UNC on the collegiate hardwood dating back to 1921, with the Tar Heels winning the last 11 match-ups to hold an 11-1 advantage in the series.
Rutgers are coming off a 55-52 home win over Saint Peter’s this past week as freshman Mike Poole led the way, shooting six-of-seven to score 14 points off the bench, including a pair of clutch free throws with 17 seconds remaining to help the Knights overcome a 12-point deficit.
Fellow rookie Gilvydas Biruta posted 11 points to supplement Poole’s performance.
Now the Scarlet Knights will be working to capture a third, non-league victory over a BCS conference foe during a season for the first time since they became members of the Big East in 1995-96
Meanwhile, the Tar Heels who have been ranked as high as No. 8 in both polls this season are coming into the game fresh off an 85-60 thumping of William & Mary at home on Dec. 21.
UNC is led in scoring by junior forward Tyler Zeller, who averages 15.5 points-per-game. Forward Harrison Barnes, the first freshman ever to be named an Associated Press Preseason All-American, is averaging 12.3 points and 6.0 rebounds-per-contest with last year’s game hero against Rutgers Dexter Strickland averaging nearly 10 points and a team leading 52.8 percent shooting average.
In its nine victories this season, Rutgers has held its opponents to 65 points or less. The Scarlet Knights have allowed just 58.2 points-per-game to rank second in the Big East in scoring defense. Rutgers is also among the league’s best in field goal percentage defense, with foes shooting just 37.2 percent against RU. They are lead defensively by Dane Miller, who is averaging nearly seven rebounds per game.
However, North Carolina tops Rutgers in rebounding, 42 to 35 per game, and is averaging nearly 80 points per games offensively. Nearly 11 points better than Rutgers.
Last season, the Scarlet Knights lost to the Tar Heels 81-67. Then freshman Strickland scored a season-high 18 points to lead six players in double figures and the Tar Heels pulled away late for a double-digit victory.
Over four years, Rutgers has gone 0-4 against North Carolina.
The Knights are playing well and definitely have some momentum, but if this bout turns into an offensive battle, which it likely will, the Tar Heels hold a distinct advantage and should win this game.
The odds makers have the North Carolina Tar Heels as a -8 point favorite.
Free Pick: North Carolina 77, Rutgers 72
Team records:
- North Carolina: 8-4 SU, 4-6 ATS
- Rutgers: 9-2 SU, 2-3-1 ATS
North Carolina Tar Heels most recently:
- When playing on Tuesday are 10-0
- After playing William & Mary are 2-0
- After a win are 6-4
Rutgers Scarlet Knights most recently:
- When playing on Tuesday are 5-5
- Before playing Villanova are 4-6
- After playing Saint Peter’s are 4-1
- After a win are 7-3
A few betting trends to consider:
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of North Carolina’s last 11 games on the road
- North Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
- North Carolina is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games on the road
- Rutgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- Rutgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
- Rutgers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing North Carolina
Next up:
- North Carolina home to St. Francis PA, Sunday, January 2
- Rutgers at Villanova, Sunday, January 2
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