National Championship: Butler vs Connecticut | Prediction & Pick

Bulldogs and Huskies prepare for a dogfight in National Championship

Again, the Butler Bulldogs have defied the odds and silenced their critics while leaving busted brackets in their wake, as they return to the national championship game for the second-consecutive year where they will tangle with the Connecticut Huskies in Houston on Saturday.

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#8 Butler (27-9, 13-5 Horizon) vs. #3 Connecticut (31-9, 9-9 Big East)
Date/Time: Monday, April 4, 9:23 PM EST
Venue: Reliant Stadium in Houston, TX
Broadcast: CBS

Money Line: Butler +155, UConn -180
Spread: UConn -3 ½
Over/Under: 128

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After suffering a 62-60 conference defeat to hapless Youngstown State, it looked as though the Bulldogs Cinderella run of a year ago had come to an abrupt end. However, since that riff at Youngstown, the Bulldogs have now won 14 straight games overall entering Monday’s matchup, including Saturday’s 70-62 victory over Virginia Commonwealth in the national semifinal.

With a tough nucleus of tireless players like Shelvin Mack, Ronald Nored, and Matt Howard, the Bulldogs are firing on all cylinders and it showed on Saturday.

Junior guard, Mack, has done a great job stepping up after Gordon Hayward’s departure, assuming the role as the team’s scoring leader. Through Butler’s first four games of the tournament, Mack shot 42.9 percent from the field and under 40 percent on jump shots outside of the paint. On Saturday against VCU, he finished with a team-high 24 points while hitting 8-of-11 shots from the field, including 5-of-6 from 3-point range to go along with six rebounds as the Bulldogs outrebounded the Rams 46-30 overall and 15-5 on the offensive boards.

Meanwhile, who would have predicted that the Huskies would be the last team standing from the Big East’s 11 NCAA contenders? After going 9-9 in regular-season conference play, they have gone further in this year’s tournament than even the most experienced bracketologists could have suspected.

Losers of four of their last five regular season games, the Huskies have now won 10 straight games and have advanced to its third national championship game, all under coach Jim Calhoun and first since 2004.

It wasn’t a pretty win or convincing for that matter, as Connecticut escaped with a 56-55 win over Kentucky in the national semi final on Saturday night in Houston.

Both squads had a ghastly night shooting, combining for 111 points — the third fewest combined points in a Final Four game since the shot clock was introduced in 1986.

Once again, the Huskies leaned on star junior guard Kemba Walker who led the team with 18 points, while Shabazz Napier’s pair of clutch free throws proved to be the difference after UConn led by as much as 10 points at the break.

Connecticut held the Wildcats to 32.0 percent shooting in the half court, including 30.0 percent from 3-point range. The team has held four of its five tournament opponents to 36 shooting percent or below in the half court.

Walker is averaging 25 points, 5.4 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game during the team’s surprising NCAA Tournament run, and after being largely a one man throughout most of the season, has gotten some help from freshman swingman Jeremy Lamb. Lamb has scored in double-figures in each of his last ten games, averaging 16.6 points. The duo of Walker and Lamb has now combined to score over 80-percent of UConn’s points in its last four games.

Butler likes to slow the game down, and minimize possessions, something the Huskies must be aware of as they turned the ball over 15 times against Kentucky. UConn will also have to improve their outside shooting after a dismal 1 of 12 from 3-point range in Saturday’s contest. Likewise, for Stevens’ experienced squad who shot only 35.6 percent from the field as a group against VCU.

The odds makers have the UConn Huskies as a -3.5 point favorite with an over/under of 128.5.

Check out the latest NCCA Championship Odds here.

Matt’s Free Prediction: The Bulldogs nearly pulled off winning a national championship just one year ago against a very good Duke team. Butler’s ability to defend and rebound will be the difference against a young Connecticut team as they cut down the nets in Houston.

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