NCAA Basketball Free Pick – Thursday, March 10, 2011
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Minnesota Golden Gophers (17-13) vs Northwestern Wildcats (17-12)
Thursday, March 10, 2011 at 2:30 PM EST on ESPN2
Last meeting: Northwestern evened their season series with Minnesota by winning 68-57 only a week ago.
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The Minnesota Golden Gophers win over Northwestern was their last before starting a miserable stretch run of 9 losses in ten games to close the season. This team’s struggles down the stretch have been mostly because of a lack of production from their backcourt but they have also looked pretty lifeless for long stretches. It really is amazing because Minnesota’s season started with so much promise. A team that seemed like a tourney and rankings lock is now playing spoiler. The oddsmakers also seem to have been surprised as the Gophers are 11-19 ATS, finishing on that same 1-9 pace ATS as well. Like the public it seems they couldn’t believe what they were witnessing.
Northwestern is still trying to break though into the NCAA tournament for the first time, and I think it will take at least a trip to the conference finals to do so. They haven’t been as bad as Minnesota down the stretch at 4-7 but squandered some important opportunities like losing two weeks ago at home to Penn State. Their best player is forward John Shurna, who is one of the most underrated players in the country. His numbers are a bit down this year as he has been playing hurt most of the season but he is good enough to push the Wildcats into the next round. It won’t be easy against an imposing Gopher front line that has lots of length.
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The current line on this one is Northwestern -1.5. I like the Wildcats to win and giving up a point and a half isn’t too much if you want to get down on this one.
Prediction: This is a hard one to call so I might just take a pass on the game. I would rather see the Wildcats extend their season than the Gophers, even though they are not the underdog they are the more likeable team for what it is worth.
Score: Northwestern 69 – Minnesota 65
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Minnesota Golden Gophers Betting Trends:
Golden Gophers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games.
Golden Gophers are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss.
Golden Gophers are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS loss.
Northwestern Wildcats Betting Trends:
Wildcats are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.
Wildcats are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite.
Wildcats are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
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