NCAA Football Free Pick – Tuesday, December 7, 2010
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#6 Michigan State (6-2) at #8 Syracuse (8-0)
December 7, 9:00 PM EST on ESPN
Spread: -2
Over/Under: 137 ½
Last season, Syracuse starters Wes Johnson and Andy Rautins lead the team to a 13-0 start and it appears that the Orange haven’t missed them as they are currently 8-0 to begin the 2010-11 season.
But now the No.8 Orange will look to keep its steak alive when the face their first ranked opponent when they meet up with the No. 6 Spartans of Michigan State in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden.
Syracuse has won the last three meetings with Michigan State to take a 9-7 lead in the series, with the Orange taking the most recent matchup, 96-83 back in January 2004.
Meanwhile, Izzo’s Spartans have had to play through a tough schedule early on, losing to No. 7 Connecticut and beating then-No.13 Washington before falling at No. 1 Duke on Wednesday, 84-79.
Among concerns about his exhausted squad, Izzo’s trepidation also includes the recent play and health of the team’s leading scorer Kalin Lucas. Averaging 14.9 points per game, Lucas was held without a point for the second time in his career against Bowling Green on Saturday. Lucas tore an Achilles’ tendon last season, and expressed some discomfort after the loss.
That should bode well for Scoop Jardine who will have the intrepid duty of matching up with Lucas. The Syracuse guard is third in scoring and put up 23 points to lead the way in a 65-59 victory over North Carolina State on Saturday.
The Orange led the NCAA in field-goal percentage at 51.6 last season including both Johnson and Rautins shooting over 40 percent on 3-pointers. Just one year the team is shooting below 30 percent from beyond the arc and shot 38.3 percent Saturday, the third time they finished below 40, and are at 43.0 percent overall.
You don’t win games, well at least for long, shooting 38 percent.
Syracuse is known for its strong starts, but hasn’t made it past the Sweet 16 the last few seasons.
The Orange backcourt of Jardine and Branden Triche is one of the best in the country and Kris Joseph is a solid go-to scorer. The only concern is the team’s lack of experience off the bench, something that could come back to haunt them as the season progresses.
With Lucas not being 100 percent, the Spartans will need production from its remaining starters.
Syracuse is not an explosive offensive team by any means, but has played tremendous defense, In any event, I think this one is close most of the way with the Orange pulling away towards the end as they often do at home, more than the two the odd makers are giving.
The odds makers have the Michigan State Spartans as a -2 point favorite with an over/under of 137.5.
Free Pick: Orange 73, Michigan 68
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