Louisville vs Morehead State | Prediction & Pick

Bluegrass battle between Louisville and Morehead State in Denver

The Big East Conference and the Ohio Valley Conference send teams from Kentucky to do battle in a second round Southwest Region matchup in Denver on Thursday as the Louisville Cardinals take on the Morehead State Eagles.

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#4 Louisville (25-9, 12-6 Big East) vs. #13 Morehead State (24-9, 13-5 OVC)

Date/Time: Thursday, March 17, 1:40 PM ET
Venue: Pepsi Center in Denver, CO.
Broadcast: TBS

Money Line: Louisville -525, Morehead State +425
Spread: Louisville -9 ½
Over/Under: 131 ½

The Cardinals are no stranger to playing in March Madness, and their coach Rick Pitino is somewhat familiar with coaching meaningful games at this point on the calendar. For the Eagles, it’s their second appearance in the big dance in the last three seasons. But prior to this run, Morehead State hadn’t appeared in the NCAA Tournament since 1984.

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And the folks in the foothills of the great Daniel Boone National Forest must wonder what their team has to do to not see Louisville in their brackets anymore. This will be the fourth time that the Cardinals and Eagles will play each other in the tournament, with Louisville winning all three previous times by more than 20 points each.

This edition of the Eagles earned their way into the tournament by winning the Ohio Valley Conference tournament, edging out an upset-minded Tennessee Tech squad (which had dispatched regular season champion Murray State) for the championship. Overall, the Eagles have won 12 of their last 13 games, and quality losses to Ohio State and Florida show they won’t be intimidated by the Cardinals’ conference pedigree.

Morehead State is led in scoring by one of the best big men that most people haven’t heard of: Kenneth Faried uses his entire 6’8” frame to his advantage, leading the OVC in scoring at 17.6 points per contest, and also grabbing a league-high and nation-leading 14.5 rebounds per contest. Faried is one of seven players in the tournament that averaged a double-double for the season.

The Cardinals will certainly be aware of Faried’s low-post presence. Conversely, the Eagles will have to account for the lightning-like quickness of Louisville’s backcourt. Preston Knowles (14.8 PPG) is the leading scorer for the Cards, and Peyton Siva (10.1 PPG, 5.3 APG) is the engine driving the offense.

The odds makers have the Louisville Cardinals as a -9.5 point favorite with an over/under of 131.5.

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Prediction: In the end, Pitino’s relentless style of pressure defense will force Morehead State’s guards into numerous turnovers. This will turn what could be a close game into an easy cover for the Cards.

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Louisville Cardinals Betting Trends:

• Louisville is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Louisville’s last 9 games
• Louisville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Morehead State