NCAA Basketball Free Pick – Friday, March 11, 2011
Lafayette (13-18) vs Bucknell (24-8)
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Last meeting: Bucknell won at Lafayette 74-69 in February (season sweep).
The Lafayette Leopards are certainly making a run. They finished only 5th in the Patriot League but now find themselves in the conference tournament finals after wins against Holy Cross and American, the latter a 2 pointer won in double overtime with a 3 pointer with less than a second to go – excitement. Last year the Leopards found themselves in a similar spot before losing to champion Lehigh. This year they will have to beat Bucknell, a tall order given the Bison have only one league loss this season. Guard Jim Mower hit the big shot against American and their leading distance shooter will need to be on target to tackle Bucknell to complete a March Madness run.
The Bucknell Bison are in a tough spot, similar to other regular season champions from one bid leagues. They are in the championship game facing a hot opponent who can end their chances of moving on to the big dance after a season of dominance. It hardly seems fair but Bucknell is no stranger to this situation having made their way to the promised land several times before. That is what I expect this time as well as they ride their big sophomore centre Mike Muscala to the Tournament. The big guy has played well all season and can be a real matchup problem for the Leopards who will likely have to guard him with someone giving up a few inches.
The current line on this one is Bucknell -9 with an over/under of 132.5. This number seems pretty solid from Vegas.
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Prediction: Lafayette is playing so well that the bubble could burst and they get blown out. Or their great momentum makes this a spectacular game. I will split the distance and look for a 5 point game that Bucknell salts away at the end.
Score: Bucknell 70 – Lafayette 60
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Lafayette vs Bucknell Betting Trends:
- BUCKNELL is 18-12 straight up against LAFAYETTE since 1997
- BUCKNELL is 4-2 straight up against LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
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