NCAA Basketball Free Pick – Saturday, January 29, 2011
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Kansas State (14-7, 2-4 Big 12) at #6 Kansas (19-1, 4-1 Big 12)
Saturday, January 29, 2011 at 7:00 PM EST on ESPN
Spread: Jayhawks -11
Over/Under: 144
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After a big win over Baylor, the Kansas State Wildcats look to have found their stride after a poor start to the season.
Jacob Pullen had 17 points against the Bears, and is still the star for KSU averaging 17.9 points per game.
Meanwhile, the sixth-ranked Kansas Jayhawks have lost only the one game this year to Texas, but they’re 1-4 ATS in Big 12 action heading into Saturday’s Sunflower Showdown with their rivals from
across state.
KU stormed out of the starting gate stringing together 18 consecutive wins before being derailed by the Longhorns on Jan 22. At times the Jayhawks have appeared to be lacking the intensity of what could be expected from a team that has been averaging 82.1 points per game while shooting a nation’s best 51.4 percent from the floor.
They did rebound with an 82-78 win at Colorado their last time out. KU’s leading scorer Marcus Morris is simply a force, averaging 17 points and 6.8 rebounds per game. He is supported by Markieff Morris who is averaging 12.7 points and 8.7 rebounds, and Tyrel Reed who is contributing 10 points per game.
Defensively Kansas is just as good as they allow 62.5 points per game as the opposition shoots 38.5 percent from the floor and they are 52nd in the country in defensive rebounding.
Those kinds of numbers will not make things easy for the Wildcats who have survived a tough schedule so far but with mediocre results including being 2-4 in conference play.
Check out the latest College Basketball Odds here.
Kansas is 10-1 at home this season and has made it a habit of defeating the Wildcats 33 of the last 35 meetings, including a six-game winning streak dating back to Jan. 30, 2008, where they have won by an average of 11.3 points.
Kansas State will either need to slow down the Jayhawks’ high-octane offense, or try to keep up offensively. It would appear that slowing them down may be the better game plan as the ‘Cats have held their opponents to just 64.6 points per game and a shooting percentage of 40.5 percent from the floor while putting up 73.5 PPG. However, the Wildcats have netted an average of barely 60 points per game in its last three contests.
If this turns into an offensive shootout, it won’t be pretty for Kansas State. Either way I expect the Jayhawks to win this one at home behind the numbing cadence of the “The Rock Chalk Chant.”
The odds makers have the Kansas Jayhawks as a -11 point favorite with an over/under of 144.
Matt’s Free Pick: Kansas 85, Kansas State 73
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Kansas Jayhawks Betting Trends:
- Kansas is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
- Kansas is 19-1 SU in its last 20 games
- Kansas is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games at home
- Kansas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas State
Kansas State Wildcats Betting Trends:
- Kansas State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
- Kansas State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Kansas State’s last 11 games on the road
- Kansas State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas
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