NCAA Basketball Free Pick – Tuesday, February 22, 2011
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Illinois (17-10, 7-7 Big Ten) at #3 Ohio State (25-2, 12-2 Big Ten)
Date/Time: Tuesday, February 22, 2011, 7:00PM EST
Venue: Value City Arena, Columbus, OH
Broadcast: ESPN
Money Line: Illinois +450 / Ohio State -600
Spread: Ohio State -10 ½
Over/Under: 135
Back in mid January, I may have given this one to Illinois after they romped North Carolina, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, and Michigan State. However, the Fighting Illini have waned since their win over Izzo’s Green Machine, losing five of their last eight including a devastating loss to those same Spartans at the Breslin Center on Saturday.
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Michigan State held off the visiting Illini, 61-57, and as in their previous five losses, Illinois inability to hit shots killed them. The Illini were 22-of-59 from the floor including 5-of-19 from three-point range and only went to the line 10 times, making eight of them. Izzo’s club also outworked Illinois on the boards 37-25.
Against Michigan State, Illinois had six players grab at least three rebounds, but Mike Davis led the group with five boards to go along with his 14 points, which was second just behind Demetri McCamey’s 15. The Illini got some good production off the bench as Brandon Paul chipped in with 12 points in 24 minutes.
The Illini will need everybody to step up at Ohio State if they are going to pull off the upset. A prayer may be more like it for a team that is just 3-5 on the road against a Buckeye team that is an impressive…no downright scary, 17-0 at home with only three coming by single digits.
As for the No. 3 Buckeyes, they will be hoping to give their fans a reason to celebrate once again as they take the floor after suffering only their second loss this season, as No. 8 Purdue outshot and out hustled the Bucks, who played from behind most of the way, eventually succumbing to the Boilermakers, 76-63 on Sunday.
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The Buckeyes only shot 38.3 percent while allowing 50.9 percent shooting. Despite Ohio State getting 12 steals, they had 18 turnovers and only forced Purdue into 14 giveaways.
OSU got 25 points from their player of the year candidate Jared Sullinger, while Jon Diebler, David Lighty, and Aaron Craft all chipped in with double figures. Four-of-15 three-point shooting also hurt the Buckeyes in their bout with Purdue.
The odds makers have the Ohio State Buckeyes as a -10.5 point favorite with an over/under of 135.
Matt’s Free Pick: Ohio State – While Ohio State has the better chance to cover at home, Illinois is fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives, so desperation could breed a tough battle for the Buckeyes. The line is 10 ½, but could drop. If it drops to less than six, Illinois and the points could be enticing.
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Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Trends:
- Illinois is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
- Illinois is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Illinois’s last 6 games on the road
- Illinois is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Ohio State
Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Trends:
- Ohio State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
- Ohio State is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games
- Ohio State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
- Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
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