NCAA Basketball Free Pick – Friday, January 21, 2011
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Green Bay Phoenix (10-9, 4-3) at Butler Bulldogs (13-6, 5-2)
Friday, January 21, 2011 at 7:00 PM EST on ESPNU
Spread: Butler -14 ½
Over/Under: 140
The Butler Bulldogs host the Green Bay Phoenix in a matchup of Horizon League rivals on Friday January 21st. Game time is 7 PM ET.
Butler won both contests last season by scores of 72-49 and 75-57. The Bulldogs would finish the season with an impressive 33-5 record, 18-0 in conference, while Green Bay finished 22-12, and 11-7 in conference.
Butler lost a hard fought game last time out to Wright State, 69-64. The score was tied 34 all heading into halftime, but the game slipped away in the second half of play. A late rally and a career high 26-point scoring effort from N’Gai Evans knocked off Butler. At one point, Butler did mount a five-point lead, 60-55, but Wright State came back 60-59 on a jump shot by AJ Pacher near the four-minute mark. With a minute left the Bulldogs took a 62-61 lead which they couldn’t hold.
Butler was last season’s NCAA Tournament runner-up, but dropped into a tie with Valparaiso with the loss. The Bulldogs rank second in the Horizon with a 13-6 record. With solid scoring capabilities, they have averaged 74.1 ppg (81st) but lack a real game plan or presence on the boards, managing only 12.4 assists (221st) and 34.9 rebounds (192nd). Matt Howard has carried the offense with 17.3 ppg, 7.6 rebounds, and a 51 percent from the field. Shelvin Mack is his wingman with 14.3 ppg and 3.5 assists, but has hit under 40 percent from the floor as of late.
Meanwhile, the Green Bay Phoenix rolled to their fourth straight win, this time against the Chicago-Illinois Flames 74-50. By the half, they had nearly doubled the score of their rival, 42-22 and never looked back. Rahmon Fletcher led the charge with a 20-point performance including three 3-pointers, and Alec Brown had a double double with 11 points and 10 rebounds. Bryquis Perine provided 16 points with five assists.
The season has been a bit rocky for the Phoenix, but with a 10-9 record they sit 5th in the Horizon. The offense isn’t a juggernaut, but seems to be showing life as of late. The team has averaged 67.9 ppg (209th) and a poor 11.7 assists (267th). Shooting, they stand at just over 43 percent (193rd), while grabbing 35.8 rebounds a game (147th). Rahmon Fletcher is the go to guy with 16.7 ppg and 2.7 assists while shooting nearly 50 percent from the floor. Bryquis Perine has averaged 12.1 ppg and 3.1 assists but has yet to show himself as a consistent presence.
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While Green Bay has seen a modest roll of late, the superior point scoring ability of Butler will prevail. The Bulldogs dominated the Phoenix last season and have shown no signs that history will change anytime soon.
The odds makers have the Butler Bulldogs as a -14.5 point favorite with an over/under of 140.
Matt’s Free Pick: Butler 74, Green Bay 59
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Green Bay Phoenix Betting Trends:
- Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 9 of Wisc-Green Bay’s last 12 games on the road
- Green Bay is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Butler
- Green Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Butler
Butler Bulldogs Betting Trends:
- Butler is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Butler’s last 5 games
- Butler is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
- Butler is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
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