Florida vs Kentucky | Prediction & Pick

NCAA Basketball Free Pick – Saturday, February 26, 2011

vs.

Florida 22-5 vs Kentucky 19-8
Saturday, February 26, 2011 at 4:00 PM EST on CBS

Last meeting: Florida won 70-68 in Gainesville earlier this month.

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The Gators seem to finally be playing like many expected they would at the beginning of the season.  They are riding a 6 game winning streak and leading the SEC with an 11-2 conference record.  They may not be dominating opponents as they have several close wins but the returning experience from last year (5 returning starters) seems to definitely be paying off.  The key for the Gators is always the play of their mercurial backcourt.  Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker might be the quickest backcourt duo in the country and they can quickly take the Gators into and out of a winning situations.  If you are like me you have noticed that the Gators have been paying off big time as dogs this season 5-0 both SU and ATS.  I think this is another great spot to play them.

I have been watching the Kentucky Wildcats with interest all season and I think they do have what it takes to have a solid post season run…but the Gators are just the kind of team to beat them.  The Wildcats have a couple of supreme talents but are not as deep this year as they were last year.  To win against top level competition consistently they need to find a third fiddle after Terrence Jones and Brandon Knight but nobody seems ready to take on the role.  They fight hard but have been falling just short throughout the season and this seems like another one of those times…but they won’t collapse in front of the faithful in Lexington.  They are 13-0 at Rupp Arena this year and won’t give that up easily.

The current line on this one is Kentucky -8.  I think there is huge value on Florida in this one so try and grab it quickly while it is there.

Prediction: The top two teams in the conference will show that the SEC isn’t quite the lightweight those around the country think it is with a fantastic game.  It won’t always be pretty but it will feel like a tournament game.  Especially at the end with the Gators winning outright.

Score:  Florida 69 – Kentucky 66

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Florida Gators Betting Trends

• Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
• Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• Gators are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Kentucky Wildcats

• Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5.
• Wildcats are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS loss.
• Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5.