NCAA Football Free Pick – Wednesday, December 8, 2010
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Bradley Braves (4-4) at (1) Duke Blue Devils (8-0)
Wednesday, December 8, 2010 at 9:00 PM EST on ESPN2
Spread: Duke -28.5
Over/Under: 144
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The top-ranked Duke Blue Devils enter Wednesday’s match up with Bradley in search of their 19th straight victory, but a lot more is at stake for coach Mike Krzyzewski then just and another NCAA-best 82-game non-conference win.
A Devils’ victory would move Krzyzewsk into sole possession of third place on the career list of Division I victories and it would come against a team he played against as a senior in Army’s 54-52 win in 1968.
Despite losing four consecutive games, the Braves have played a lot better than their record indicates, beginning the season with four straight wins including a double digit rally against USC, Northern Illinois and Loyola Marymount. Then they forced TCU to beat them with a hard second half effort, losing by one point to Western Carolina, and falling 68-60 to Utah its last time out.
The Braves were hit hard when senior guard Sam Maniscalco was scratched for the remainder of the season because of a recurring ankle injury. Maniscalco had played in 111 consecutive games for Bradley, including the Braves first six games, and averaged 9.7 points and 4.3 assists. His skill and leadership has and will be greatly missed. Bradley is also without junior forward Taylor Brown who was sidelined earlier this season due to precautionary medical reasons.
Since then a lot has been firmly placed on the shoulders of Missouri Valley Conference leading scorer Andrew Warren who had 27 points and 10 rebounds Saturday against the Utes. Warren leads the conference with a 19.0-point scoring average. The odd thing is he’s averaging 14.0 points in victories and 24.0 in losses.
With Brown out, the Braves lost their most athletic player who could match up with Dukes’ Kyle Singler, the Most Outstanding Player of last season’s Final Four. They will need to use their quickness to harass the Devils standout, who will be without the help of star freshman point guard Kyrie Irving who suffered a toe injury in Saturday’s 82-70 victory over Butler–a rematch of last season’s national championship game.
Irving is averaging 17.4 points and 5.1 assists. Sophomore Andre Dawkins will likely get his first career start in his place.
Senior guard Nolan Smith scored a season-high 24 points and Irving had 21 on Saturday as Duke took control with a 12-0 run in the second half after the game was tied at the break. Singler, who is averaging his lowest PPG since his freshman season, contributed just 13 points.
Duke and Bradley (4-4) split their only two meetings in 1950-51. The Braves are 2-9 against defending national champions and 1-7 versus top-ranked teams.
It would be fair to say the uber-athleticism of Duke will likely be too much for Bradley, with Singler patrolling the perimeter along with Dawkins who is more than able to launch an outside shooting attack. However, the Blue Devils need to concentrate on rebounding because they have been caught heading in the offensive direction on fast breaks, an area that Bradley’s quickness may prevail.
While I am sure that Duke will win this, I am not so sure it will be by the large number of points the odd makers have set in this one.
The odds makers have the Duke Blue Devils as a -28.5 point favorite with an over/under of 144.
Free Pick: Duke 82, Bradley 68
Bradley Braves Betting Trends:
- Bradley is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Bradley’s last 8 games on the road
Duke Blue Devils Betting Trends:
- Duke is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- Duke is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
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