Baylor Bears vs Texas Longhorns | Predictions, Free Pick, Odds | Sportsbookbuzz.com

NCAA Basketball Free Pick – Saturday, February 12, 2011

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Baylor (16-7, 6-4 Big 12) at #3 Texas (21-3, 9-0 Big 12)
Date/Time: Saturday, February 12 4:00 pm EST
Venue: Frank Erwin Special Events Center in Austin, TX.
Broadcast: ESPN

Money Line: OFF
Spread: Texas -11.5
Over/Under: OFF

No. 3 Texas continues to roll and will attempt to push its current win streak to nine when they face off against Big 12 cross state rivals the Baylor Bears, winners of four of their last six, in Austin on Saturday evening.

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The Longhorns have dominated their Big 12 opponents improving to 9-0 conference play, and following its 68-52 win at Oklahoma on Wednesday, is now 21-3 mark on the season, marking the third time in program history the Horns have started the year with at least 21 wins in their first 24 contests. It also marks the first time the Horns have started league play with nine straight wins by 10 or more points since the 1921-22 season.

Texas held an insurmountable 44-28 halftime lead and never let Oklahoma back in, beating the Sooners big in shooting and defensive rebounding. Jordan Hamilton was the leading scorer for the Longhorns with 20 points in 38 minutes and also posted a game-high nine rebounds.

The Horns shot 53 percent from the floor and easily outpaced the Sooners, who struggled with 32 percent against an all out defensive effort from Texas, who benefited from their defensive rebounding with a big 30 to 18 edge.

Meanwhile, Baylor is now cautiously optimistic after knocking off Nebraska 74-70 in Waco on Wednesday. The Bears outlasted the Huskers grabbing the victory by winning the personal foul management and defensive rebounding battles.

LaceDarius Dunn put up a team-best 24 points while Perry Jones III chipped in with seven huge rebounds, as Baylor used a big advantage on the boards to win the possession battle with 22 defensive rebounds to 19 for Nebraska.

Dunn leads the Baylor backcourt and averages about 30 minutes per game, and takes almost 32 percent of the Bears shots when he’s out there, virtually identical to Texas’ Hamilton.

Although similar in the stats columns, their games are a good bit different. Whereas Texas is running a systematic offense — most often through Jordan Hamilton – Baylor basically just runs a lot of one-on-one, dribble-drive offense, most often through Dunn.

Baylor who after losing 23 straight games to the Horns, have won the last four meetings dating back to the 2009 Big XII Tournament. The Bears swept the Longhorns last season, including a pair of double-digit wins in Waco and Kansas City.

The Bears stymied Texas in large part because the Longhorns had no answer for the Bears’ zone defense. Now, the Bears don’t even play a great zone, but will try. If the Longhorns struggle to stretch the zone because they can’t hit outside shots, it could spell disaster early on.

Baylor is also long inside and that could also add to Texas’ woes, as it will be tough to get inside buckets if they can crowd the lane.

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Finally, the biggest danger posed by Baylor’s frontline size advantage, is their potential to drag down a lot of boards getting second chance points.

Matt’s Free Pick: Texas – The Longhorns are the better team here especially at home. However, if the Bears play as they played against Nebraska their last time out, they can hang with the Texas no problem. On the other hand, if Texas takes everything they did right from its last outing, they should come away with a big win.

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