NCAA Basketball Free Pick – Wednesday, December 15, 2010
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Auburn (3-5) at South Florida (5-5)
Wednesday, December 15, 9:00 PM EST on ESPNU
Spread: South Florida -12
Over/Under: 117 ½
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Dominique Jones, the first Bull to earn all-Big East first team honors, led South Florida to a 20-win season in 2009, and this year the Bulls are relying on 6-10 junior Augustus Gilchrist to cement their place in a tough Big East Conference.
However, scoring has been an issue as in the Bulls recent 56-52 loss to Kent State on Sunday night. The team is scoring just 62.6 points a game and rank last in scoring in the conference.
Guard Jawanza Poland, the second of only two players besides Glchrist to average in double digits, led the Bulls with 15 points in the loss.
USF is using its size to its advantage on the boards, allowing only one team in the early going to out-rebound it. Six-foot-eleven senior center Jarrid Famous and 6-8 junior Ron Anderson, Jr., who leads the team with 7.7 RPG, have been major contributors on the glass, helping the Bulls eke out some hard-fought wins.
Meanwhile, the Tigers who have had their share of struggles and are without the majority of the scoring threats from last year’s team, including star guard Frankie Sullivan, who is out with an ACL injury, are coming off a 63-54 defeat against Rutgers in the DirecTV SEC-Big East Invitational last Saturday.
Kenny Gabriel scored 18 and Earnest Ross had 15 points for Auburn.
Though there is not one single senior on this year’s Auburn’s roster, the Tigers have shown an ability to play veteran tough defense, and a knack for rebounding, not having been out-rebounded through their first seven games, despite being one of the smallest teams in the SEC.
Leading scorers Andre Malone (13.3 points per game) and Earnest Ross along with Kenny Gabriel have been the three toughest Tigers on the glass.
Malone, a smallish sophomore, is not the best shooter, but he’s made up for it with toughness to become an effect leader on this young Tigers’ team.
Tony Neysmith has emerged as the starting point guard while Ross has been one of the Tigers’ go-to swingmen, but hasn’t been consistent on his outside shooting. Freshman Josh Langford is a recent addition to the rotation but has also struggled to score.
The Tigers will struggle matching up size wise as South Florida’s strength lies in an inside game that includes two players 6-10 or taller in Gilchrist and Famous. However, if Auburn is caught concentrating more on Gilchrist and Famous, the will get scorched by the likes of Anderson and Poland.
I expect a young Tigers squad to fall victim to the Bulls in this low scoring one at home.
The odds makers have the South Florida as a -12 point favorite with an over/under of 117.5.
Free Pick: South Florida 63 – Auburn 52
South Florida Bulls Betting Trends:
- South Florida is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Auburn Tigers Betting Trends:
- Auburn is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
- Auburn is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Auburn’s last 8 games on the road
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