NCAA Basketball Free Pick – Thursday, February 10, 2011
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Alabama (15-7, 7-1 SEC) at #24 Vanderbilt (16-6, 4-4 SEC)
Date/Time: Thursday, February 10, 2011, 9:00 PM EST
Venue: Memorial Gym, in Nashville, TN.
Broadcast: ESPN2
Money Line: Alabama +240 / Vanderbilt -280
Spread: Vanderbilt -6 ½
Over/Under: 134.5
The No. 23 Vanderbilt Commodores will try to make it 11 straight home wins against surging SEC foe Alabama when the two tip off on Thursday night.
The Commodores have not lost at home to Bama since 1989-90 and are currently sitting second to last in the SEC East. They cannot afford any more loses as they open the second half of conference play.
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The Crimson Tide may add to Vandy’s problems as they attempt to stretch their win streak to six games—their first in league play in more than six years.
To complicate matters for the Commodores, Alabama is among the nation’s leaders in field-goal percentage defense at 36.2 and scoring defense with 57.1 points per game and won for the third time in four road games Saturday, with a 65-60 in overtime over Tennessee. Tony Mitchell came off the bench to score a career-high 24 points and had three blocks while leading scorer JaMychal Green contributed 14 points, making six of Alabama’s 10 free throws in extra time.
The Tide, shot 42 percent and played solid defense, holding the Volunteers, to just 34 percent from the floor. They will need to be that good at the defensive end against the Commodores’ Jeffrey Taylor and sophomore guard John Jenkins, who is averaging an SEC-best 19.2 points overall and has gone 27 of 58 from 3-point range in the last nine games.
Jenkins scored 18 points, while Taylor and Festus Ezeli added 17 apiece and Vanderbilt snapped a two-game skid by routing South Carolina 78-60 it’s last time out. Taylor hit a career-high four 3-pointers as Vanderbilt improved to 12-1 at Memorial Gym.
The Commodores outscored Bama by 12 in the second half to win 79-74 back on Feb. 5, 2009 in Nashville, but the Tide returned the favor as Taylor scored 13 and Jenkins added 11 points and three 3s off the bench in a 65-64 victory in Tuscaloosa, on Jan. 13, 2010.
Taylor, the Commodores’ top defender, and center Ezeli will face a tough test against Mitchell and Green.
Mitchell is averaging a team-best 15.3 PPG and is tied with Green who is averaging 7.9 boards per game to go along with 16.8 points.
The backcourt matchup between Brad Tinsley and the Tide’s Trevor Releford should also be interesting as well. Releford was named SEC freshman of the week after averaging 14.5 points in his past two performances.
The odds makers have the Vanderbilt Commodores as a -6.5 point favorite with an over/under of 134.5.
Matt’s Free Pick: Alabama – Vanderbilt has had one consistent problem since November. It hasn’t been able to finish off games. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide could be tourney-bound based on their SEC play. They are defiantly the hotter of the two teams at the moment, and since they match up evenly with Vandy, I expect momentum to carry Bama to a win in this one, upsetting the Commodores at home.
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Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Trends:
- Alabama is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
- Alabama is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 9 of Alabama’s last 12 games on the road
- Alabama is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Trends:
- Vanderbilt is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
- Vanderbilt is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games at home
- Vanderbilt is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Alabama
- Vanderbilt is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Alabama
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