Utah Jazz 2010 Preview & Predictions

Utah Jazz 2010 Season Preview, Predictions Picks & Odds

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Utah Jazz 2009-2010 NBA Record: 53-29, 2nd in Northwest Division

Utah Jazz Betting Trends & Betting Angles:
• 10-2-1 ATS past 13 as fave of 8+ points
• OVER is 1D-3 past 13 games as underdog
• 16-4 SU past 20 at home to Nuggets
• OVER is 8-2 past 10 at Denver
• OVER is 7-2 past 9 games at Minn.
• OVER is 8-1 past 9 at home to TWolves
• 14-4 ATS past 18 at home to Trail Blazers

Utah Jazz 2010 Preview & Prediction

Jazz president Randy Rigby might have best summed up the team’s offseason when he joked that Al Jefferson’s introductory news conference should have been held at a local amusement park given what a roller-coaster ride July was for all involved. The Jazz appeared set to take a step back in the Western Conference as they absorbed three defections in the span of four days early in free agency. It started with two-time All-Star Carlos Boozer, who agreed to a five-year, $75 million contract with Chicago. As much as his Jazz tenure was marked by injuries and controversy, Boozer’s departure left Utah without its leading scorer and rebounder. Kyle Korver followed Boozer to the Bulls. After shooting an NBA-record 53.6 percent from 3-point range last season, Korver agreed to a three-year, $15 million contract with Chicago. The hits kept coming as Wesley Matthews – who went from undrafted rookie to playoff starter in one of the NBA’s great success stories – agreed to a fiveyear, $32.5 million offer sheet with Portland. But general manager Kevin O’Connor regrouped immediately and impressively. He turned Boozer’s deal into a sign-and-trade with Chicago, then used the $14 million trade exception the Jazz obtained from the Bulls to acquire Al Jefferson from Minnesota. Jefferson averaged 20.1 points and 10.4 rebounds in three seasons with the Timberwolves. Minnesota wanted to shed Jefferson’s contract (owed $42 million the next three seasons) and take back as little salary as possible in return. The Jazz were able to accommodate that desire with the Boozer trade exception while also sending Minnesota two future first-round draft picks and Kosta Koufos. So the Jazz effectively got younger by basically trading Boozer for Jefferson. Boozer will turn 29 in November while Jefferson is only 25. Three of the Jazz’s core players – Deron Williams, Jefferson and Paul Millsap – all are 26 or younger. Just as Jefferson arrived, O’Connor made another bold move. Instead of matching the offer to Matthews, he opted to bring back Raja Bell as a free agent on a three-year, $10 million deal. Bell enjoyed two successful seasons in Utah from 2003-05, and the Jazz are counting on him to deliver 3-point shooting, perimeter defense and veteran leadership. After experiencing little roster turnover in recent seasons – the Jazz brought back 12 players a year ago – the team saw the departure of three core players and the arrival of two new ones in one week.

Utah Jazz Coach: Jerry Sloan (23rd season)

Utah Jazz Projected Starters: PG Deron Williams, SG C.J. Miles, SF Andrei Kirilenko, PF Al Jefferson, C Mehmet Okur.

Utah Jazz Key Additions: F Al Jefferson.

Utah Jazz Key Losses: F Carlos Boozer, F Kyle Korver, G Wesley Matthews.

2010 Utah Jazz Point Guards:

Deron Williams was arguably the NBA’s best point guard last season and he figures to be one of the elite players at that position for the foreseeable future. He is not flashy and he plays in a small media market so he has not received all of the recognition he deserves; Williams has been a top flight point guard since his second season (2006-07) but he has only received one All-Star selection and two All-NBA second team nods. Ronnie Price received most of the backup minutes at this position last season. He is a quick player who had a better than 2-1 assist/turnover ratio in 2009-10 but opposing teams can sag off of him because of his erratic outside shooting touch. Sundiata Gaines showed flashes of ability after being called up from the D-League and his game-winning three-pointer versus the Cleveland Cavaliers has been replayed countless times. It remains to be seen if he can truly be a rotation player over the course of an entire NBA season.

2010 Utah Jazz Off Guards:

This has not been a position of strength in recent seasons; ever since Jeff Hornacek retired in 2000 the Jazz have searched in vain to find a player who can consistently knock down enough outside shots to draw some defensive attention away from their big guns. Ronnie Brewer did not exactly prove to be the second coming of Hornacek. Brewer eventually lost the starting job to Wesley Matthews, who had a solid rookie campaign but signed with the Portland Trail Blazers during the offseason. The Jazz are counting on Raja Bell, who will turn 34 before the season begins, to provide outside shooting and defensive toughness. Small forward C.J. Miles will also probably receive minutes here, depending on matchups; early in his Utah career Miles went through some growing pains but the five-year veteran has become a solid contributor. Rookie Gordon Hayward is nominally a forward but because of his thin body type and his outside shooting touch the Jazz may use him at off guard in certain situations.

2010 Utah Jazz Small Forwards:

Andrei Kirilenko became known as “AK-47″ because of his nationality and number but a more apt nickname would be “Swiss Army knife,” because he has a tool for every possible basketball job. His Inspector Gadget-like arms enable him to block more shots and grab more rebounds than might be expected when first looking at his angular frame. Kirilenko is also a capable scorer, passer and ball thief. He has accumulated three”5×5″ games during which he had five or more points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocked shots; the only other player known to have stacked up multiple “5×5″ games is Hakeem Olajuwon (six), though it should be kept in mind that steals and blocked shots did not become official NBA statistics until the 1973-74 season. The 29-year old Kirilenko should be in the prime of his career but Jazz fans have to be a little concerned that his best seasons were from 2004-06 when he made the All-Star team once and earned three straight selections to the All-Defensive Team (including a first-team nod in 2006). Miles and Hayward will serve as Kirilenko’s primary backups. The one main drawback for the Jazz is that many of the league’s top teams have a proven scorer at this position but none of Utah’s small forwards have that kind of skill set; Kirilenko’s scoring average has declined since 2004-06 and he seems to be much more comfortable as a complementary player offensively, even though he periodically complains that he does not get enough touches.

2010 Utah Jazz Power Forwards:

The Jazz have started an All-Star at power forward for the better part of the past 20 years. Karl Malone set extremely high standards with his durability, his scoring prowess and his rebounding but just a few years after Malone retired, Carlos Boozer emerged as a reliable 20-10 player, though Boozer fell well short of Malone in the durability department. Al Jefferson clearly has some huge shoes to fill but he established himself as an All-Star caliber performer in Minnesota, averaging 21.0 ppg and 11.1 rpg while starting all 82 games in 2007-08 and then producing 23.1 ppg and 11.0 rpg before injuring his knee in 2008-09. He recovered sufficiently to score 17.1 ppg and grab 9.3 rpg in 76 games last season and will likely increase those numbers in 2010-11 because he has a better supporting cast around him and because it usually takes more than a year to fully recover from ACL surgery. Paul Millsap is a bit undersized but he is a tenacious rebounder who is also a consistent double-figure scorer. He can start in a pinch but is best suited to being a reserve player doing work against the other team’s reserves. Kirilenko can also play power forward when the Jazz utilize a smaller, quicker lineup.

2010 Utah Jazz Centers:

Mehmet Okur may have just been a spare part on Detroit’s 2004 championship team but he nearly turned into a 20-10 player during his first season in Utah (18.0 ppg, 9.1 rpg while starting all 82 games in 2005-06) and he has been a solid 16 ppg/8 rpg performer during his Jazz career. He has shot at least .384 from three-point range each of the past four seasons, including a career-high .446 in 2008-09 when he ranked sixth in the league in that department. The durable Okur has started every game that he has played for Utah since 2005-06 and he has appeared in at least 72 games in each of his six Utah seasons, including three seasons in which he participated in at least 80 games – and the Jazz better hope that Okur recovers nicely from his heel injury, because they do not have much depth supporting him. If Kyrylo Fysenko does not re-sign with the team, then the Jazz will not have a single other player on the roster whose primary position is center, though Jefferson can play center if necessary.

Utah Jazz 2010 Season Predictions

We predict that the Utah Jazz will finish 3rd in the NBA Northwest Division .

Utah Jazz Betting

Utah Jazz NBA Championship Odds: +3000

Utah Jazz Eastern Conference Odds: +1200

Utah Jazz 2009-2010 Betting Stats

Utah Jazz Straight Up: 53-29
Utah Jazz ATS: 49-30-3
Utah Jazz Home ATS: 26-13-2
Utah Jazz Away ATS: 23-17-1
Utah Jazz Record As Favorite: 43-14
Utah Jazz Record As Dog: 9-14
Utah Jazz Over/Under: 41-39-2

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