NBA Free Pick – Monday March 7, 2011
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Portland Trail Blazers @ Orlando Magic
Pointspread: Orlando -2 ½
Over/Under: 188 ½
The Portland Trail Blazers kick off a four game East Coast road trip when they take on the Orlando Magic tonight at the Amway Center. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. and the game will be available on NBA League Pass.
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Portland continues to make a strong push towards the postseason with seven wins in its last 10 games. It is coming off a 107-102 victory over Sacramento last Wednesday as a 3 ½-point road favorite followed by a 93-69 stomping of Charlotte as an 11-point home favorite this past Saturday. The Trail Blazers are 4 ½-games in back of Oklahoma City in the Northwest Division and in seventh-place in the Western Conference with an overall record of 35-27 straight-up. They are 30-29-3 against the spread this season.
LaMarcus Aldridge continues to be Portland’s front man with 22.3 points and 8.9 rebounds a game. Andre Miller is averaging 13.3 points and a team-high 7.3 assists while Marcus Camby is pulling down 11.1 rebounds a game. Throw in Brandon Roy’s 15.2 points and 2.9 assists a game off the bench and you have a solid nucleus of talent on this team.
While the talent is there, the consistency from game to game is not as the Trail Blazers are ranked 23rd in the league in scoring with 96.2 points a game and 27th in rebounds with 39.5. They are shooting 44.4 percent from the field and 34.5 percent from three-point range. Portland is one of the better foul shooting teams in the league; converting on 80.1 percent of its attempts.
Orlando’s recent four-game winning streak came to a screeching halt with an 89-81 loss to Chicago this past Friday night as a two-point home favorite. This followed an amazing come-from-behind victory over Miami as a 5 ½-point road underdog last Thursday in a game they trailed by as many as 24 points. The Magic are currently 40-23 SU overall and 29-33-1 ATS. They are three games in back of the Heat in the Southeast Division and in fourth-place in the Eastern Conference.
The loss to the Bulls proved to be costly after Dwight Howard picked up his 16th technical foul of the season and will have to serve a one-game suspension which just so happens to be tonight. Jameer Nelson, who leads the team in assists with 6.2 a game and is averaging 12.6 points and Jason Richardson, who is the second leading scorer with 13.8 points a game will have to find a way to replace Howard’s team-high 23.1 points and 13.9 rebounds a game.
The Magic are averaging 100 points a game, while giving up just 94.2. This is the sixth-best point differential in the league. They are shooting 46.3 percent from the field and 36.3 percent from beyond the three-point line. They are also sixth in the NBA in rebounds with 43.1 a game, but that is with Howard in the lineup.
Portland is 4-0 ATS in its last four games on the road and 6-4 ATS in its last 10 games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in three of its last four games.
Orlando is 2-3 ATS in its last five home games and 3-2 ATS in its last five games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in four of its last five games.
Head-to-head, the Trail Blazers have won three of the last five games SU including a 97-83 romp in early December as a 2 ½-point home underdog. The total has stayed ‘under’ in the last three meetings.
Orlando is at a severe disadvantage with Howard out for this game, but stick with the Magic to grind out a win at home and cover the 2 ½-point spread as the team rallies in his absence.
Check out the latest NBA Basketball Odds here.
The odds makers have the Orlando Magic as a -2.5 point favorite with an over/under of 188.5.
Portland Trail Blazers Betting Trends:
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of Portland’s last 12 games
- Portland is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
- Portland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
- Portland is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Orlando Magic Betting Trends:
- Orlando is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Orlando’s last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando’s last 7 games at home
- Orlando is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games at home
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